Mornin’ Politocadoes!
Hill observers are not confident the House Republican Civil War will be resolved by Wednesday. As we well know at this point, on Tuesday, a handful of GOP congressmen joined with the Democratic Caucus to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy following a Motion to Vacate filed by Rep. Matt Gaetz. The Office of the Speaker is now vacant while the House is in recess until next Tuesday. While a few candidates have emerged in the race for the Speakership, each come with key drawbacks that could make the process as excruciating as it was at the beginning of the year.
It’s a little hard to believe it’s only been nine months since McCarthy, embarrassingly, took the gavel after 15 separate votes. Out and ousted less than a year into the job, many of the same people that held up his election are the ones responsible for taking him out. The cracks were already there. There was no way that it should have lasted as long as it did.
But it had to.
The thing about McCarthy’s time as Speaker is that there really wasn’t a better option. Having anyone loonier would alienate moderates and Democrats. He could talk to the House Freedom Caucus, see to their demands and then fold that into something that could be brought to the floor. And to some degree, that’s true. He did a few things to try to channel that energy into something…palatable. For instance, he opened a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. But that wasn’t enough and if anything, sealed his fate by angering the Democratic Caucus. McCarthy probably felt safe knowing that he could be the reasonable one; the best option in the face of nothing at all. But then it happened. Matt Gaetz pressed the self-destruct button and all of the concessions McCarthy made to become Speaker were rendered moot.
In its wake, there is nothing assured. Two candidates have appeared so far in the forms of Rep. Jim “Gym” Jordan and Rep. Steve Scalise, with Republican Study Committee Head Kevin Hern also considering a run at it. However, the threat to any future Speaker remains, and it’s pretty clear it doesn’t matter if there’s an R next to their name. So some moderates are threatening to sink any candidate if the rules aren’t changed to protect against removal by Motion to Vacate. Naturally, people like Gaetz are enjoying flexing their muscles at the moment, so that’s a dealbreaker. Moreover, there are some who are threatening to sink any speaker who will fund Ukraine OR won’t seek an impeachment of President Biden. And these two are dealbreakers are for moderates.
And to make it all worse, whoever does succeed McCarthy still has to contend with the razor-thin majority he had in the first place. House Republicans have rung the proverbial bell and there’s no way to unring it.
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/05/scalise-jordan-hern-speaker-vote-ukraine-rules
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