Mornin’ Politocadoes!
Russia recently claimed that it was leaving the border with Ukraine. With only Russian video to back up the claim, the US and NATO allies were understandably skeptical. The brief glimmer of hope for those observing it from afar has been dashed however, as reporting from the New York Times, backed up by British and other Western Intelligence services, show that Russian forces have only increased in recent weeks.
Approximately 7,000 troops had arrived as recently as Wednesday, with satellite imagery showing movement of attack aircraft to surrounding areas near Ukraine’s border. As many as 30,000 Russian troops have been shown to be participating in joint military exercises with Belarus. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it
“Unfortunately there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does, and what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback,”
This is to say nothing of the massive hacking attempts that have been bombarding Ukraine’s internet. Key websites such as some of Ukraine’s largest banks and its defense ministry were knocked offline. There’s been no definitive connection to Russia, but it’s very much in their wheelhouse. According to Sen. Jim Risch (R?-ID)
“Every time the Russians have done this, they’ve started with a cyber attack. They did it in Georgia, they did it in Crimea, they did it in Estonia, when they didn’t even go in,” he said. “It’s in their quiver.”
There’s also been the “unprofessional intercepts” by Russian jets of US Navy air fighters in international space over the Mediterranean. While most often these encounters are friendly and professional. the intercepts were done in such a manner it left the US with concern that a mistake or a miscalculation could lead to a far more deadly outcome. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was performing military drills in the Mediterranean to protect Russian national interests.
So it sure sounds like Russia is saying one thing and doing another. Keep in mind that this sort of mobilization has been practiced before. As just last year, Russia had completed a military drill to “provide a credible defense to the country” that brought forces to Ukraine’s borders and promptly left by May 1st, 2021.
It is also worth noting the similarities to Russia-Georgian War of 2008. In the prelude to Russia’s invasion, there was a pretense of withdrawing troops. 8 days later Russian troops crossed the border into South Ossetian territory and continued further inward, damaging the Tbilisi airport among other sites. They were only stopped when engaged by Georgian forces and promptly denied it was an invasion, that they were only responding to Georgian aggression. I won’t be surprised if past is prologue.
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