There’s no easy way to say this: we’ve reached the end of the 2023-2024 awards season. Yes, tomorrow night is the big one, the last hurrah, the nerd Super Bowl, the 96th Academy Awards. Before you start to fret though, I have great news! Sundance and Berlin have already yielded a crop of potential nominees for the 97th Oscars, to say nothing of the thrilling success of Dune: Part Two, and before you know it we’ll be back here again predicting nominees. In the meantime, let’s dive right into my predictions for tomorrow night’s big winners! Taking a cue from the way the Mothership used to do it (and at the urging of one dedicated reader), I’ll give my thoughts on what will win, what should win, and what should have been nominated in the major categories. Keep reading for my predictions, and join me in the comments to share your thoughts and contemplate the shorts and tech categories!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy Of A Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers Of The Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone Of Interest

Will Win: Oppenheimer – In a strong crop, Oppenheimer stands head-and-shoulders above the rest. It has the narrative, it has the box office, it has the spectacle, and it’s going to win.

Should Win: Oppenheimer – It may not be my personal favorite film in the field, but there’s no denying what Oppenheimer did last year, proving to Hollywood that what moviegoers want in a (sort of) post-Covid world is something truly worthy of their time and money. If you can make more than $960,000,000 off of a thoughtfully crafted three-hour adult drama with the right people behind it, then you can do it off of anything if it’s actually good. 

Should Have Been Nominated: May December – I’m going to be saying this a lot throughout this piece, but holy cow was May December sold short by the Academy! Todd Haynes has been churning out masterpiece after masterpiece since the early ’90s, and to date the only Oscar nomination he’s received is for writing Far from Heaven. The capstone of a revelatory and otherwise-lauded career, May December deserved to be showered with trophies.

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy Of A Fall

Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone Of Interest

Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer – Nolan’s long-overdue coronation is at hand, and there’s pretty much nothing that will stop it. With wins at BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, and the Directors Guild, Nolan is steamrolling his way to a win 16 years after The Dark Knight’s snub prompted the Academy to expand the Best Picture category. 

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer – He made a three hour adult drama that’s half black-and-white courtroom drama, half biopic into a thrilling, bombastic epic that made nearly $1 billion in a tortured box office environment and finally earned Emily Blunt an Oscar nomination. Need I say more?

Should Have Been Nominated: Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron – Of course Greta Gerwig should have been nominated here, but I can’t write 2000+ words about the 96th Oscars and not comment on the fact that barring his umpteenth return from retirement, Hayao Miyazaki will ultimately go down never having been nominated for Best Director. The breathtaking absurdity of that statement is galling.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer – This category seemed wide open a few months ago, but once the televised awards started Murphy’s fierce and emotive turn as J. Robert Oppenheimer became undeniable. He’s already picked up trophies at the BAFTA Film Awards, SAG Awards, and Golden Globes; in fact the only televised award where Murphy’s been beaten was Paul Giamatti’s surprise win at the Critics Choice awards. In what will be a big night for Christopher Nolan’s magnum opus, recognizing its star is a given.

Should Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy has been turning in understated, under-recognized performances for decades, and I can’t disagree with the Academy heaping some more praise on him.

Should Have Been Nominated: Kôji Yakusho, Perfect Days – Yakusho shines in Wim Wenders’s tale of a public toilet custodian who finds beauty in the everyday, and the fact he couldn’t make it onto the shortlist highlights the Academy’s continuing blindspot where acting in East Asian cinema is concerned.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – This mess of a category comes down to Gladstone vs. Stone. They split the Golden Globes in Drama and Comedy/Musical, respectively; Stone took the wins at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards; and Gladstone won the SAG. There’s been some debate over whether or not Gladstone is in the right category, but the narrative for her win – it would be the first for a Native American in any acting category – has been building since long before the film’s Cannes premiere, and I think the Academy will see it for the powerful lead performance it is. 

Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – Gladstone is the heart of one of Scorsese’s best films of the 21st century, and her soulful performance is deserving of every bit of recognition it gets.

Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Lee, Past Lives  – The list of actresses that were competitive in this category (certainly more so than Bening’s hammy turn in Nyad) is long – Margot Robbie, a double nom for Sandra Hüller, Natalie Portman,  Fantasia Barrino… I could go on, but the one I want to highlight is Greta Lee’s heartbreaking work in Past Lives. Lee captures the feeling of being split between two cultures, two men, and two times in her life with poignant perfection.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer – Oppenheimer’s near-sweep won’t be complete without a win for Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss. A win here is the definition of an “overdue” Oscar, but it’s hard to fault the Academy for joining every other televised award in recognizing Downey Jr.’s quietly villainous turn.

Should Win: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon – Robert De Niro’s sinister work as William King Hale haunts Scorsese’s masterful Killers of the Flower Moon. His presence seeps into every scene, whether or not he’s in it.

Should Have Been Nominated: Charles Melton, May December – Early in the season, Melton seemed like a sure thing after a spate of critics’ wins, including coveted awards from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics. Melton’s snub for his remarkably subtle work in May December sits as one of the biggest misses in the Academy’s egregious near-shutout of the film.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers – Da’Vine Joy Randolph has swept everything, and I do mean everything: SAG, BAFTA, the Critics Choice, the Golden Globe, the trifecta of NSFC, NYFCC, and LAFCA, and just about every other critics award you can think of. That’s not going to suddenly stop on Sunday. 

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers – Randolph brings bitter humor, emotional complexity, and hard-won love to Alexander Payne’s dark comedy. Her sweep may have made this category a bit predictable all season long, but there’s absolutely no reason to fault such a richly deserved sweep. 

Should Have Been Nominated: Julianne Moore, May December  – Yes, I’m back on May December again, and why not? “I don’t think we have enough hot dogs” deserves to be in the next AFI compilation of film quotes, and Moore’s alternately naively innocent and creepily aware performance deserves to be on the Academy’s shortlist.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone Of Interest

Will Win: Oppenheimer – The smart money in this category is on American Fiction, but especially after Everything Everywhere All At Once showed us just last year that the modern Academy has no problem with an above-the-line sweeper, I have a hard time seeing Nolan not take this one for his masterful adaptation of Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin’s Pulitzer-winning American Prometheus. 

Should Win: Oppenheimer – See above. “Highbrow” critics might not agree, but Oppenheimer’s screenplay is spectacular. 

Should Have Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon – It’s rare that this category is so stacked – there are five Best Picture nominees in it! – but Scorsese’s epic showcasing of America’s ravenous greed is a master at the top of his game, and his and Eric Roth’s screenplay – the only Picture nominee not to be recognized for its writing this year – was more than worthy of recognition.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy Of A Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall – This category seems to be neck-and-neck between Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers. With the former racking up a strong nominations tally and missing out on a certain win in International Feature – and the latter most definitely getting recognized in Supporting Actress – this feels right.

Should Win: May December – Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik turned in a dark, hilarious, and thrilling script for Todd Haynes’s comedic look at America’s celebrity- and scandal-obsessed culture, and by all rights it should mark the only win for the film from its lone nomination. 

Should Have Been Nominated: Saltburn – Say what you will about Emerald Fennell’s twisted sophomore feature, it was written sharply enough to cut glass. 

Best Animated Feature

The Boy And The Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – The Academy may be improving by leaps and bounds, but on some things I must remain a cynic, and one of those things is their refusal to give animated films their due. The overall field here is stellar, but the win seems pretty solidly to belong to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I’d be happy to be proven wrong, but it still feels like Spirited Away’s win in 2002 is the big exception to the rule and the Academy will go lazily for the biggest name in the field. 

Should Win: The Boy and the Heron – Miyazaki’s swan song may not fully capture the nuance, wonder, and delight of his most well-loved films, but The Boy and the Heron is nonetheless a masterpiece, deserving of this award and at least a few others (looking at you, Best Score!). 

Should Have Been Nominated: Suzume – Makoto Shinkai’s latest animated blockbuster may be making the wrong kind of headlines right now, but until the nominations were announced it seemed to have a strong chance of making it in, and rightfully so. We can only hope that the more mature and adventurous composition of this year’s shortlist is a sign of things to come!

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill A Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol – Betting against a documentary centering the plight of the beleaguered Ukrainian people seems like the height of futility, so I will not do it!

Should Win: Despite watching more documentaries than I ever have before in 2023, not one of them made it onto the Academy’s shortlist, so I’ll defer to the more cultured denizens of the Avocado to set me straight in the comments!

Should Have Been Nominated: Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros – Frederick Wiseman has never been nominated for an Oscar. I’ll write that again: Frederick. Wiseman. Has NEVER. Been nominated for an Oscar. The 94-year-old documentarian turns in some of his strongest work with this 4-hour meditation on fine dining, localizing supply chains, climate change, familial drama, and food porn. 

Best International Feature

Io Capitano, Italy

Perfect Days, Japan

Society Of The Snow, Spain

The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany

The Zone Of Interest, UK

Will Win: The Zone of Interest – It’s pretty tough to bet against a Picture-, Director-, and Screenplay-nominated contender in this category, so I won’t. France made a calculated risk not submitting Anatomy of a Fall here, and it’s to the great benefit of Jonathan Glazer’s disturbing arthouse hit.

Should Win: Perfect Days – I found Glazer’s concentration camp-set examination of the banality of evil admirable, effective, and formally flawless, but I’m a sucker for a feel good drama and it’s hard to say no to the hopeful delight of Wim Wenders’s take on what could have otherwise been a run-of-the-mill indie drama.

Should Have Been Nominated: The Taste of Things, France – Japan had an absolute bumper crop of choices this year and could have filled the entire category if the Academy didn’t limit submissions to one per country – in addition to Perfect Days, Japan could easily have submitted The Boy and the Heron, Godzilla Minus One, Monster, and Suzume, to say nothing of Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist, which has smartly been held back for a 2024 release. That said, I’ve got to go with something that was actually ultimately eligible in the category, and for me that’s France’s The Taste of Things, a touching melodrama that’s part romance, part tragedy, and all (yes, I’m saying it twice in this article!) food porn. They may have made a mistake not submitting Anatomy of a Fall, but Tran Anh Hung’s work here is just as worth of recognition. 

And there we have it! Head down to the comments to discuss predictions in all 23 categories, and tune in tomorrow night (on ABC or places where you can stream ABC live, because for some reason despite having two struggling streaming services Disney doesn’t see the value in live-streaming the Oscars) to see how wrong I am!