Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s get into this weekend’s FIVE big new releases, Dora & the Lost City of Gold, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, The Art of Racing in the Rain, The Kitchen and Brian Banks.
Dora & the Lost City of Gold
Dora, Dora, Dora the Explorer comes to the big screen in a live-action movie which, amazingly, doesn’t seem like it was a terrible idea after all. Taking place several years after the preschool series, Dora is now facing a far greater challenge than the jungle–high school–and must rescue her kidnapped parents from villains who are heck-bent on finding the titular city of gold.
This appears to be exactly how a live-action Dora should be, remaining faithful to the spirit of the cartoon (right down to Dora’s outfit, which looks great), while still allowing itself to “grow up” a little (complete with a very funny meta-joke in the trailer about Dora’s habit of breaking the fourth wall “for help”). Directed by James Bobin (who helmed The Muppets and the actually quite underrated Alice Through the Looking Glass), Dora is getting a very warm reception from critics at 72% “fresh” over at RT, not bad at all for a film which many were scratching their heads over before its first trailer was released.
Can Dora find box office treasure? That’s hard to say. In addition to families, the target audience here is kids who grew up in the 90’s with the original cartoon series, but fortunately the film looks charming enough to appeal to others as well. Still, The Lion King is still reigning quite mighty–there’s even a chance it could take the top spot back from Hobbs & Shaw this weekend–which is going to take a bite out of its opening, Give Dora a debut of $18 million, which would be fine.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: This looks like an extremely solid family film. Also Swiper.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Preschool shows don’t always succeed in theaters when they try to make the jump to the big screen (The Adventures of Elmo in Grouchland bombed big at the box office when it opened in 1999). And with the (well-reviewed!) Angry Birds Movie 2 opening next Wednesday, Dora might not have much space to explore.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $18 million opening; $58 million finish.
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
Here we have the only other new movie this weekend that has a rational chance of opening in the double digits, and that’s in a large part due to a fine marketing campaign and the “brand name” factor of Guillermo del Toro being attached (even if he’s serving as a writer rather than a director here). Based off of the book series of the same name and essentially telling three separate horror tales, Stories is actually the best reviewed film of the week with a terrific 78% “freshness” score, which as I’ve stated before, is amazing for the genre.
Box office wise, Stories got off to a solid start last night with $2 million in preview screenings, but it remains to be seen if that will reflect how it will play for the whole weekend or if it will be front-loaded. Once upon a time, PG-13 horror films were absolutely everywhere, but over the last few years they’ve become a little more rare as gory R-rated movies have gained momentum. Does the PG-13 rating help Scary Stories? Absolutely, as it not only allows for teenagers to go, but it also makes the film a potential choice for families looking for something a little creepy but not overly hardcore. Look for a decent take of $16 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The trailers have been It-level enticing in terms of teasing scares, and the poster campaign showcasing the film’s three different stories has been great as well.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: The story involving a pimple on the cheek which manifests itself into something much worse might prove to be a bit too much for the more squeamish. This also feels like the sort of movie which would be better suited for October.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $16 million opening; $40 million finish.
The Kitchen
Falling into the “why is this opening in August” category is The Kitchen, starring Melisa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish, and with those names attached you would be forgiven for assuming it was a zany comedy in which they compete in a reality TV cooking competition with hilarious and potentially flatulent results. Instead The Kitchen is a crime drama which involves a trio of women taking down the mob…and, yeah, there’s not much more to say about it beyond that.
Though based off a graphic novel (hence the DC logo being used in the trailer), everything about this film looks fairly generic. The villains appear to be of the “cartoonishly evil and over-the-top sexist” variety, and apart from the female leads, there’s nothing to set this apart from other gangster movies. Warner Bros. apparently sensed this, holding a review embargo until the very last minute in order to keep the stink away as long as possible, and it seems they weren’t wrong as The Kitchen has been absolutely trashed by critics with a terrible 19% “freshness” score at RT.
I’ve mentioned before that reviews usually can’t make or break a film. However, as much as I loathe the usage of “audience statistics” in terms of box office discussion, in this case it’s somewhat safe to say that Warner Bros. was primarily targeting older moviegoers, and they’re the very ones who read what critics have to say before they buy a ticket (according to “statistics” at least). Elizabeth Moss of The Handmaid’s Tale and Frosty Returns fame is also involved here, but she’s somewhat untested when it comes to being able to fill movie seats on her name alone (her biggest film ever is Us, which she was in for about five minutes). At the end of the day, though, it’s bad buzz that’s going to kill this one. Look for $9 million or so.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: If nothing else, the cast is pretty nice here, and McCarthy earned acclaim for another dramatic role for last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Unexciting trailers, a bleak tone, and terrible reviews make this a tough sell for the summer movie season
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $9 million opening; $31 million finish.
The Art of Racing in the Rain
No, even with a title like that, this isn’t Terrence Malick’s latest meditative opus, but another “dog narrates his life story” movie, this time with Kevin Costner as said dog. Also starring professional nice guy Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried, this looks to be a completely inoffensive tearjerker, and that’s more than okay for mid-August.
The trailer is effective–even if the words “from the director of Marley & Me” are enough to scare me into worrying that the dog dies–and the PG rating could make this an offering for some families. Reviews may be on the fence at 53% “fresh,” but critics tend to have no impact one way or the other on dog movies, as these films are made for audiences who enjoy sentiment. The downside is that Racing in the Rain represents yet another of Disney’s “Fox leftovers,” meaning they don’t care much one way or the other how it does financially (we won’t see “true” Fox/Disney movies until at least next year). Look for $8 million, though there’s a chance this could actually top The Kitchen if audiences like what they see.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Kevin Costner saying meaningful and funny things as a dog is probably the most Kevin Costner thing he’s done in years. Also I cried during the trailer, so judge all you like.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: There have already been two of these movies this year, so this could end up playing dead at the box office rather than fetch.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $8 million opening; $34 million total.
Brian Banks
In the “wait, we’re still not done?” category, we have Brian Banks, though in this case, we have a movie that’s barely opening on over 1,000 screens, so who knows what to expect from this one. The biopic about an NFL player who spent five years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit, the story is certainly the sort that has the makings of a good movie in it, even if reviews are split at 56% “fresh” at the time that I’m writing this.
Coming from the smaller production company Bleecker Street and with the only big name attached being Greg Kinnear, there’s a slight chance we could be looking at sleeper success here, though I don’t think anyone is expecting that here. The main issue, of course, is that there’s been virtually no marketing to be spoken of. People aren’t going to show up for your movie if they don’t know it’s playing. On the other hand, criminal justice reform being a hot topic right now in the news could give this one a boost, along with those who are already fans of Banks as a football player. Look for $2 million and we’ll see where it goes from there.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: This is a story that deserves to be told, and I’ve never seen Kinnear in anything in which I didn’t enjoy him.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: There are simply too many movies playing right now in order for this one to even have a hope of being a big hit.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $2 million opening; $11 million total.
Other fun stuff…
* Apparently The Lion King remake is “outraging” many by being a huge hit when every person alive was expecting it to be a huge hit. To those lamenting that this was enough to ruin your childhoods, I wish you well, and hope you can get something resembling a life soon.
* Most of my experience watching Dora the Explorer comes from spending several afternoons in doctor’s waiting rooms in which the cartoon was playing non-stop on the television there. Dora is fucking hardcore when it comes to handling danger (in that she’s all smiles when dangling for dear life at the edge of a volcano).
* If you haven’t seen 2011’s Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, I highly recommend it for a rental. It’s pure del Toro in terms of its storytelling and is wonderfully creepy and intense.
* I’m very sorry for being so late this time. There were a number of reasons for this, and next week we should be back on track.
* I haven’t seen any movies for a few weeks. I have a lot of catching up to do! What will you all be doing this weekend?