2023 is the final year for the 4-team playoff in college football. Next year we enter the brave new world of 12 teams, and with it the end of real debate over who should be in. Sure, teams on the bubble will still bellyache over getting screwed, but these will be teams with 2+ losses, no one to blame but themselves. This is the final year where a legitimate, honest-to-god Contender could be on the outside looking in.

And what a year for it! We have an unusually strong top 8 this year, and a conference championship weekend full of stakes. 8 teams are alive for 4 spots, and 7 of them are playing for a title either today or tomorrow. Most years, the selection committee has had a pretty easy job; 2014 (Ohio State over TCU or Baylor) was probably the only year they had to really debate, and OSU made them look good by winning the whole thing. But depending on how this weekend goes, they might have a real doozy on their hands this weekend.

Because I may have some Brain Issues, I was struck by madness/inspiration last night, and decided to chart all 32 outcomes of the Power 5 title games, along with their implications for the playoff. I’d like to share that work with you now, so I don’t feel so weird for having done it.

Category 1: No Drama

These 15 outcomes are the boring ones, the ones with no real decisions to be made. Often they involve 4 undefeated champions. Sometimes (UGA, UW, FSU, OkSt, Iowa) they don’t, but there’s still an obvious 4th pick (12-1 Michigan, over 2-loss Bama, Oregon, and Texas, and an 11-1 Ohio State they have a head-to-head with).

One potential quibble I see people having is scenarios where Alabama wins the SEC and yet are cleanly out. There’s been some consternation online that the committee might choose to overlook Texas beating Alabama by 10 in Tuscaloosa back in September and leapfrog a 12-1 Bama over a 12-1 Texas. Fundamentally, I do not think this is possible; CFB fans often think a bit too cynically when it comes to the SEC. The committee wasn’t willing to pull shenanigans 2 years ago to screw Cincinnati, and they will be even less willing to screw over the Longhorns. A 12-1 Texas will always rank ahead of Bama IMO, and these predictions reflect that.

Category 2: Who gets 4?

Here’s where the committee has to start making tough calls. Sometimes, the choice is merely 90% obvious instead of 100% (a 12-1 Big XII champ Texas probably leapfrogs 12-1 non-champ Michigan) and sometimes it’s utter chaos (12-1 UGA vs 12-1 Washington vs 12-1 FSU vs 11-1 Ohio State, none of them champions). If you’re a fan of the Buckeyes you’re hoping for a scenario here more than one above. Same if you’re a Bama fan, as these are all clean entries for the Tide, even in scenarios where Texas also wins. But if you’re a fan of chaos for its own sake, may I interest you in our final category?

Category 3: Chaos Reigns

These scenarios are all unlikely. They involve upsets in the B1G, Big XII, and ACC, and the Iowa win especially is unlikely. But if it happens, oh boy. The juiciest situation, the one to root for if you’re a true sicko, is the bottom one, where Bama, Oregon, Louisville, Oklahoma State, and Iowa all win their title games. That situation gives us Bama and the Ducks in cleanly, and Texas out cleanly, with five teams having plausible entry for just 2 spots. This is the situation that leads to deranged fans admitting criminal acts on call-in shows. This is the situation that is pure college football.