Yet again, the Oscar nominations are bearing down on us amidst significant upheaval in the film industry (and I don’t mean the appointment of Sylvester Stallone, Mel Gibson, and Jon Voight as “Special Ambassadors” to Hollywood, presumably to revive the Hays Code and appoint Kirk Cameron as Academy president). Hot on the heels of Covid and the simultaneous Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild strikes, Hollywood has ground to a halt as Southern California – and particularly Los Angeles County – is devastated by wildfires exacerbated by the relentless Santa Ana winds. The Academy elected to delay announcing the nominees for the 97th Academy Awards by more than a week out of an abundance of caution and courtesy to the victims, as well as to give affected Academy members more time to vote. 

It’s an excellent year for high-production value, critically-adored flicks that performed well at the box office: there are the obvious blockbusters like Wicked and Dune: Part Two, but also over-performing adult-targeted and arthouse fare like The Brutalist, Conclave, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, Babygirl, and sleeper hit Nosferatu, all of which have performed well against reasonable budgets, truly a dying breed in Hollywood (though I don’t anticipate that translating to much of an awards haul for Babygirl or Nosferatu). Sean Baker’s Anora, which was seen as a potential above-the-line sweeper as soon as it premiered at Cannes in May, has seen its chances dwindle as the season wears on, but whatever the ultimate outcome you should expect to see it all over this year’s nominations. Other top contenders have seen a sharp divide between their acclaim by critics and the industry, and their box office returns and audience reception: while Netflix acquisition Emilia Pérez should still walk away with a strong nominations tally, Amazon’s Nickel Boys didn’t make much of an impact in its limited release and has only gone downhill from there – staying in the Picture field will be a major victory for the film. Similarly, Searchlight’s release of Sundance hit A Real Pain has had a hard time justifying the $10 million purchase price, but the near-certainty of a Supporting Actor win for Kieran Culkin should go a long way towards pulling this one out of the red. A24’s TIFF 2023 acquisition Sing Sing has an outside shot at the Picture field after a decidedly lackluster box office run – and an even more tepid return to theaters over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend – but it will probably be settling for nominations in Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Song. I think two other films that were seen as strong contenders but have fizzled at the box office – Trump critique The Apprentice and Munich Olympics thriller September 5 – will ultimately get blanked by the Academy.

Normally I like to spend some time on a deep-dive on each film’s performance so far with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, local critics groups, industry guilds, and BAFTA, but I’ve decided to shake up my format a bit this year (and save you all at least 1,000 words) and go category-by-category instead.

Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked

Alt: Sing Sing

There’s really no question about Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Wicked here. Dune: Part Two has managed to stay in the conversation since last March and is sure to make a big impact below-the-line, so I expect it here. Largely on the back of Culkin’s Supporting Actor sweep, A Real Pain has clearly been moving up the rankings and starting to show up on a number of Picture (and Screenplay) lists, including with the all-important Producers Guild. Similarly, after a box office breakout and a consistently strong showing for Demi Moore’s lead performance, The Substance is looking quite likely to nab a Picture nomination. I think Nickel Boys and Sing Sing are duking it out for the last slot, and give the edge to the former since voters have likely screened it much more recently and the latter’s tumultuous release has made it hard to keep it in the conversation.

Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Alt: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

At this point there’s a pretty clear pattern in this category: look at the Directors Guild’s list and switch one. I have a hard time seeing Audiard, Baker, Berger, or Corbet miss this year, which leaves Mangold on the bubble (not surprising, as A Complete Unknown has largely been perceived as Timothee Chalamet’s show). Denis Villeneuve could sneak in for Dune: Part Two, but I think the passion pick will be Fargeat for The Substance, who has managed to stay on voters’ radars since her Screenplay win at Cannes and fits (along with Audiard and Berger) with the Academy’s increasing friendliness towards international directors compared to the DGA. 

Actor
Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Alt: Hugh Grant, Heretic

There’s little question Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes are making it in. My prediction of a very good morning for A Real Pain extends to writer-director-star Eisenberg making it in, but Grant has been a bit of a spoiler recently, popping up in the Comedy category a the Golden Globes and making BAFTA’s six-nominee slate. While I think genre bias is working against him (and Demi Moore, for that matter), I’d still put him over either of Sebastian Stan’s performances (The Apprentice and A Different Man). 

Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance

Alt: Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Erivo, Gascón, Madison, and Moore are certainties here. The fifth slot is insanely competitive, though, with Jean-Baptiste, Kidman, Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl – nominated by SAG and the Golden Globes, but not BAFTA), Angelina Jolie (Maria), and Fernanda Torres (International Film contender I’m Still Here, for which Torres won Best Actress – Drama at the Golden Globes) all in with a chance. The Academy has historically been more cold than hot on Mike Leigh’s films, most frequently recognizing them as screenplay accomplishments and not much else, but Jean-Baptiste’s acerbic performance in Hard Truths has been gaining steam, and a BAFTA nom could lift her onto the Oscars slate.

Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Alt: Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

The competition here is to get nominated, not to win, as Culkin has more or less swept this season’s Supporting Actor trophies. Borisov, Norton, and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) have joined Culkin on the BAFTA, SAG, and Golden Globes slates, but as I mentioned above, my hot take this season is The Apprentice getting shut out as Hollywood trips over itself to appease the new U.S. administration. The fields of six at BAFTA and the Golden Globes and five at SAG have been filled out by a combination of Pearce, Washington, Bailey, and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing); since I don’t expect Sing Sing to have a very strong showing, I’m thinking that a big haul for The Brutalist carries Pearce over the line, and name recognition and Academy popularity let Washington complete the slate.

Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Alt: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

Saldaña, despite the obvious category fraud, seemed like the odds-on favorite to win until people saw Grande in Wicked (also obvious category fraud!). Now the race has tightened somewhat. Jones and Rossellini made it in at BAFTA and the Golden Globes, though neither is on the SAG slate. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) joined Saldaña on the BAFTA and Golden Globe lists, while Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) made it in with BAFTA and SAG. The true wildcards here are Margaret Qualley (The Substance), who earned a Golden Globe nom, and Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), who made it in with SAG. I think the Academy makes up for Deadwyler’s snub for Till here, with Curtis playing spoiler.

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
Hard Truths
A Real Pain
The Substance

Alt: Challengers

Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Wicked

Alt: Sing Sing

Since the Golden Globes only have one Screenplay category, Writers Guild eligibility requirements frequently exclude eventual Oscar nominees, and BAFTA almost always squeezes in one or more smaller British nominees, these categories are always a little tricky. In Original Screenplay, Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, and The Substance have had strong showings all season and should show up tomorrow. BAFTA nominee Kneecap seems quite unlikely, as do WGA nominees Civil War and My Old Ass. That last slot is most likely between perennial screenplay nominee Mike Leigh for Hard Truths and Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers. In Adapted Screenplay, Conclave and Emilia Pérez (neither nominated by WGA) seem like sure things. A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys both showed up at BAFTA and WGA; BAFTA filled out their slate with Sing Sing, while WGA’s more idiosyncratic list included Dune: Part Two, Hit Man, and Wicked. I’m going with the films that are looking stronger among the Picture lineup here. 

International Feature
Emilia Pérez, France
Flow, Latvia
The Girl with the Needle, Denmark
I’m Still Here, Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany

Alt: Kneecap, Ireland

The only sure thing here is Emilia Pérez, though the highly acclaimed Iranian film The Seed of the Sacred Fig (submitted by Germany) should show up as well. A few years ago, the dialogue-free Flow wouldn’t have been eligible, but now that it is I expect it to show up, too. Given that I’m Still Here is on the outskirts of Best Actress, I give it a strong shot of appearing. 

Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Alt: Chicken for Linda

It’s easy for the Academy to name-check churned-out sequels like Despicable Me 4, Kung Fu Panda 4, and Moana 2 (especially the latter, since Disney is an even easier name-check for them), but this year in animated storytelling has been far too innovative and strong for them to ignore. I can already imagine the comments that are going to appear below about how Academy voters “ask their kids what they should vote for” here, but the two most recent winners are Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and The Boy and the Heron, and we’ve seen diverse nominees like Flee, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, and Robot Dreams over the past few years alongside bigger-budget dreck, so consider me hopeful here.

Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries
Dahomey
Daughters 
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Will and Harper

Alt: Sugarcane

Palestinian genocide documentary No Other Land is certainly the odds-on favorite for a nomination here, and I think it won’t make it in for two reasons: (1) Hollywood has practically made a new art out of doubling-down on an industry-wide pro-Israel stance over the past 18 months, and (2) the favorite frequently doesn’t make it in in this category (see also: The Remarkable Life of Ibelin). I’d love to be proven wrong, but as with my prediction that The Apprentice gets shut out, I refuse to give the Academy too much credit this year.  

Live Action Short
The Ice Cream Man
A Lien
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa

Alt: Anuja

Animated Short
A Bear Named Wojtek
Beautiful Men
A Crab in the Pool
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Me

Alt: Yuck!

Documentary Short
Chasing Roo
I Am Ready, Warden
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
Planetwalker
A Swim Lesson

Alt: Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World

Cinematography
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu

Alt: Nickel Boys

ASC expanded to seven nominees this year – the five I’ve selected plus Maria and Wicked. BAFTA went with The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, and Nosferatu. I feel confident in the four that overlap, with A Complete Unknown’s across-the-board strength carrying it over the line. 

Costume Design
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Maria
Nosferatu
Wicked

Alt: Gladiator II

Films in the CDG’s “Contemporary” category almost never break through here, but Conclave has the unique benefit of a distinctive look that can’t be written off as effortless due to incorporation of modern fashion. The rest benefit strongly from falling into the guild’s Period and Fantasy categories. 

Film Editing
Anora 
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez

Alt: A Real Pain

This category is often seen as reflective of the Picture nominees with the most passion (and on Oscars night, a clear early indicator of who might be taking home the top prize), so it’s hard for me to get behind potential nominations for Challengers, The Substance, or Wicked, all of which showed up in the Comedy category (!?) with the American Cinema Editors. A Real Pain, on the other hand, has been looking stronger by the day, and as with Eisenberg in Actor, I predict it to have a strong showing Thursday morning.

Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Alt: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

Alt: The Substance

Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Wicked

Alt: Mufasa: The Lion King

Despite its Visual Effects Society nomination, I refuse to believe that the Academy is going to let Better Man make the transition from shortlisted film to nominee.

Score
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot

Alt: Emilia Pérez

Song
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late
“El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
“Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky,” The Wild Robot

Alt: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

What is The Six Triple Eight? Beats me, but Diane Warren wrote the song, so it’s almost definitely making it in.

Sound 
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Wicked

Alt: The Wild Robot

——

And that’s that! Join me down in the comments to talk through your own predictions, and I’ll see you all bright and early Thursday morning for the live nominations announcement thread. 

You can find more of my musings on the Oscars (and occasional reviews!) here on The Avocado, and on Letterboxd.