And we are back! Welcome everyone for the whatever number annual indulgence of the official Avocado voice of basketball.* I for one am looking forward to another exciting season especially because there’s some new faces in new places and it is fun seeing how everything is going to fit. We had an exciting regular season last year and then the Nuggets low key steamrolled everyone in the playoffs behind the glorious play of Nikola Jokic. Meanwhile in the Eastern Conference the play-in Miami Heat were led by Jimmy Butler on a tear so great that it caused an existential crisis for the year long front running Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers. Seriously they stared at the abyss of Jimmy Buckets so much that the Celtics traded Marcus Smart for Porzingis, the Sixers fell apart as Harden has spent his off season collecting fines for shit talking Daryl Morey, and Giannis finally showed the smallest actual hints of a threat of leaving Milwaukee and they answered in a big way. Then not to be outdone the Celtics again made a splash by landing Jrue Holiday.
Meanwhile, we had some really fun upstarts last year. The Sacramento Kings lit the beam straight into our hearts. The Knicks and Cavaliers showed signs of life in the East after big off-season moves. The Pelicans were number 1 in the West for a minute (*sobbing). Remember when Kevin Durant got traded? Crazy right? Even the eventual champion Nuggets were quietly discounted down the stretch only to go 16-4 in the playoffs on the way to the title.
And now for the part I had to completely re-write. The NBA is weird right? Due to its very nature it can often feel like the off season actually overshadows the season and even the champions. The Damian Lillard deal we all knew was coming at some point somehow feels larger than the Nuggets actually winning the title. Of course that is because the NBA is so star driven and lends itself to an outsized importance of those stars and player movement. It is very much on purpose that NBA free agency and trades are this exciting as it keeps the NBA in the news year round. Plus, recency bias means big moves heading into the season become the much bigger story.
With that said, holy shit Dame to the Bucks?! I was positive that he would force his way to the Heat eventually. Landing on the Bucks changes the landscape of the East. I love Jrue Holiday to death, but a healthy Lillard-Giannis combo should be incredible when backed by Middleton, Lopez and, well, anyone. Even better is Jrue then went to the Celtics setting up an incredible potential clash between the two Eastern Conference favorites.
So now we just wait for the Harden deal.
This year we have some notable new rules to contend with. For starters the NBA is introducing an in season tournament which is not at all made up and will be taken seriously by everyone involved. More importantly is that there are now new rules against resting players and requiring players to play 65 games in order to be eligible for end of year awards and all NBA teams. Contract rules mean those new rules will have implications not just for the awards and honors themselves but also for how much players can sign extensions for and therefore future cap space.
If I missed anything sound off below but as is tradition let’s go through the teams. All of these takes are written pretty off the cuff and shouldn’t be taken too seriously by anyone unless I’m right. I’m just a fan.
Boston Celtics
After a Finals trip 2 years ago the Celtics were eliminated by the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals last year. After that they made the surprising move of trading Marcus Smart in a deal that landed them Kristaps Porzingis. On paper, a healthy Porzingis could be an interesting wrinkle to an offense based around superstar Jayson Tatum and whatever level of star Jaylen Brown is. Then they went and added Jrue Holiday and now they can throw a lot of perimeter defenders at problems now. It feels like coach Joe Mazzulla did just enough to save his job last year although that could just be the vocal Boston sports media. The Celtics will of course be contenders again and it feels like in the East it’s them or the Bucks barring any surprises.
Philadelphia 76ers
Well Joel Embiid finally won his MVP and now Harden and Morey are going through a very messy public divorce. They quietly signed Kelly Oubre who I continue to be surprised can’t find a more permanent home. As I’m writing this Harden has not been traded and that’s obviously hanging over the Sixers right now. They have been trying to maximize their window with Embiid but it feels like they always run into problems given they have now had the Ben Simmons and Harden situations back to back. They feel like they’re now clearly a step behind the Bucks and Celtics in the East.
Toronto Raptors
The biggest change here is actually that Nick Nurse is gone as this Raptors team enters a new era. I don’t have a good read on the team honestly. They could end up finally being sellers and just trading everyone not named Scottie Barnes or they just throw all their lengthy wings at teams and it works out.
Brooklyn Nets
Oh how times have changed. It feels like just yesterday that the Nets had collected a trio of stars in Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant and were set to be contenders. Then the 3 of them only played something like 10 games together and now none of them are here as the Nets have hit the reset button and will attempt to begin retooling. The good news is they jump started that with some solid players. I’m a big fan of Mikal Bridges and last year it was looking like a bigger role could turn him into a potential star.
New York Knicks
The Knicks are good. Brunson appears to be the next chosen son of New York and they have some serious depth. They’ll be fighting around the middle of the East playoff spots and personally I don’t think they have the star power to really hang with the top of the East.
Milwaukee Bucks
I mean for real? This starts and ends with the new Dame and Giannis pairing. With Middleton suddenly becoming one of, if not the best, 3rd options in the league this side of Bradley Beal. It doesn’t even feel like they gave up that much depth to get here. Obviously health and having time to gel will be the deciding factor here because it always is. Giannis and Lillard seem like pretty natural fits together on the court though. Losing Jrue Holiday removes some defensive edge and Dame is an aging small guard which has a tendency to go poorly. Honestly though that’s just some nit picking. You do this deal 100 out of 100 times and there are going to be games where this combination looks downright unfair.
Chicago Bulls
The Lonzo situation is just sad at this point and I really do hope the best for him and his health. Other than that the Bulls are rolling with much of the same as last year. LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic will look to improve on their 10th place finish. If things start poorly teams will be calling them though.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are a good team that flamed out in the playoffs last year. I loved this team last year and I still love them this year. Evan Mobley enters year 2 looking to make a leap and Donovan Mitchell, Jarret Allen, and Darius Garland are all still here. They also added Max Strus but they’re going to rely primarily on continuity leading to improvement if they want to climb to true contender status.
Indiana Pacers
After years of trade rumors the Pacers seemed to settle on actually keeping Myles Turner. Tyrese Haliburton is great and they paid for Bruce Brown to join in free agency. I’ll be honest I gave this a re-read right before scheduling the post and realized the Pacers weren’t even listed.
Detroit Pistons
Last year’s campaign unfortunately was doomed from the start as Cade Cunningham was injured early. Very excited to see what this team can do with a healthy Cade, Ivey and reclamation projects Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman.
Miami Heat
Well then. So after a run to the finals as the 8th seed being fueled by undrafted and unexpected talent they looked to be the favorites to trade for Damian Lillard and add him to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Well they didn’t get Dame. Strus, Vincent and even Zeller are gone. Herro is probably pissed he was going to be moved only to now be forced to show up for work again. So it’s interesting. On paper they won’t measure up to the top teams. But this is the Heat and we’d all be stupid to count them out. Jimmy-Bam-Herro should still be really good.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are obviously all about Trae Young who is quickly racking up a list of mid season coach firings. They likely find themselves stuck in the middle of the playoff picture in the East but Quin Snyder is a good coach who is looking to build on the success he had after taking over for Nate McMillan. They traded John Collins away and added veterans Wesley Matthews and Patty Mills but it’s hard to see those transactions moving the needle all that much. It’s going to be year 2 of the Young-Murray backcourt pairing and they have a fun collection of wings in Bogdanovic, Hunter, and Bey.
Charlotte Hornets
Hey Michael Jordan sold the team! Also ban Miles Bridges immediately.
Washington Wizards
Jordan Poole is going to shoot 35 times a game except for the times when Kuzma shoots 35 times a game.
Orlando Magic
The Magic were a fun and young team last year and rookie of the year Paolo Banchero will look to make a sophomore leap alongside Franz Wagner. Joe Ingles is here now and is the only player on the roster over 30 years old which is hilarious.
Utah Jazz
How ’bout Lauri Markkanen? That was dope as hell honestly. The Jazz started crazy hot after losing both Mitchell and Gobert and beginning their rebuild before falling in line with what was more expected. This is a hard team to judge honestly. It felt like they were going to just tank last year but they have real players and actually may just go for it. You can do that when you have other team’s picks to work with instead of just your own.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the champions and had a really strong run through the playoffs. There’s not really any reason they can’t do it again. Jokic is still a marvel to watch and the supporting cast is still strong. The West is crowded but a healthy Nuggets team should sit comfortably near the top again. The challenge is the same as it always is which is that it is really hard to repeat as champions. The main core is still here and any team with Jokic balling has a shot.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The World Cup showed that Anthony Edwards may be ready to be an absolute superstar. This is year 2 of the Karl Anthony Towns and Gobert experiment after year 1 was derailed by Towns getting hurt. Of everyone here I think Towns is the one most likely to get moved if things go south. They shouldn’t though because Towns has made it clear that they are more impressive than the Nuggets.
Portland Trail Blazers
Well it is truly the end of an era. Dame is gone and now it is time for the young talent to run free. Expect the pretty classic rebuild here with a lot of time being given to young players as assets are stockpiled.
Oklahoma City Thunder
In direct contrast to the above, the Thunder may actually be done with their rebuild and it feels like the time has come to cash in those assets. Shai is good enough for them to win now and they have strong pieces up and down the roster. Holmgren might actually be awesome and there is a truly hilarious Chet vs Wemby rivalry brewing. Watch out for this team I think this may be the year they make the leap.
Phoenix Suns
Durant, Booker, and Beal certainly count as a Big 3. Fully healthy this team should be unguardable but they’re gonna rely heavily on isolation and mid range jumpers which always gets iffy. Depth is always the thing with teams like this and the Suns are ….okay? Moving on from Ayton let them fill out the roster a bit more and Eric Gordon chilling somewhere wide open is pretty much a perfect fit. Durant is reaching a point with his age and health where we don’t know how many more shots at this he’s gonna get. There isn’t really a true point guard on this team and I think the expectation is that they just won’t need one or Booker will do it.
Golden State Warriors
Chris Paul is a warrior, Poole is gone and the 2 paths thing has been largely abandoned. This team when healthy is going to still be the Warriors and the most interesting thing will be how Paul fits in and if he will come off the bench. Last season was very strange for workplace punching related reasons. Well the one who got punched is gone and instead perhaps the greatest conference rival the Warriors have had during this dynasty has been added. They were missing various players a lot of last year and maybe with everyone back and the mess of last season put behind them they’ll be right back to competing.
Los Angeles Clippers
There’s still rumors about a deal being made for Harden. It feels like they’ve missed their window a bit. George and Kawhi are just never healthy at the same time though I still wouldn’t want to run into them both in the playoffs. I just don’t actually believe that is going to happen. I think they’re coming into the season healthy so maybe this is the year? Oh right Russ is here too.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers re tooled on the fly last year and really solidified their roster. With a full season together they should be right in the mix. Obviously the question is just how much of a load can LeBron carry in year 47.* Austin Reaves was on the World Cup team and has become a clear third option behind LeBron and Davis. A full year of this team being together should help them find their best rotation. I still think they’re a step behind the top contenders but as much as I hate to say it I really like their roster and would not at all be surprised to see LeBron closing in on another ring.
Sacramento Kings
LIGHT THE BEAM! One the best surprises of last year and they became fan favorites. I love fun young teams like this. They should be a playoff team again so the main thing will be using that playoff experience to try to find another level. Fox is awesome and has great chemistry with Sabonis.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last year this team firmly planted themselves as the villains of the NBA. Dillon Brooks poked the bear so hard he is now a Rocket and they got original flavor Marcus Smart to replace him. Of course nothing matters more than Ja Morant’s suspension (again) for flashing a gun (again). Will they hold on until Ja get’s back and will Ja stop doing stupid shit? Time will tell. Tyus Jones isn’t here to pick up some of that slack anymore. Unfortunately Steven Adams is already out for the year too so Jaren Jackson Jr is going to have to really step up and cut down on his fouls for them to survive.
Dallas Mavericks
Last year I said they reminded me of the Hawks of yesteryear in that they probably overachieved reaching the conference finals and would fall back down to Earth. Well I was kinda right but I didn’t expect that Earth to be flat. Look if you have Luka you have a shot in any game, that’s just reality. Much was made out of them seemingly pseudo tanking down the stretch to keep their own pick last year. I’m guessing Luka is not going to want to miss the playoffs again.
New Orleans Pelicans
Health. Health. Health. This team was number 1 in the West for a brief stint. There’s no world where Zion can play every game but if he can just be healthy enough for the entire team to be available most of the time they’ll be competing for a playoff spot. The West is so crowded they could end up 3 or 11 though.
San Antonio Spurs
Largely an experiment year as we get to see if Wembanyama will live up the hype. Pop will continue to do Pop things and squeeze every win out of the roster.
Houston Rockets
Ime Udoka is the coach now and will look to be a guiding hand to a young roster in need of it. Kevin Porter Jr has been moved from the team after his arrest and of course Udoka is bringing some of his own baggage after his exit from the Celtics. This is a young team looking to develop better habits. Every win will be progress for them.
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In terms of actual contenders this year the East feels easy right now. Celtics and Bucks with the Sixers below that depending on how the Harden situation shakes out. Then the Knicks, Cavs, Nets cluster below that. In the West? Who knows? Nuggets, Suns, Lakers, Warriors followed by literally the rest of the conference except the Blazers, Rockets and Spurs.
Well there you have it. This should be a very fun year. There has been a lot of interesting moving pieces and retooling in terms of players and coaches. I’m sure I’ll look ridiculous for this by the end of the year but the West seems overloaded with teams trying to compete and the East seems much more top heavy in terms of actual viable title contenders. As always I hope everyone enjoys the season. Be good to each other and good luck to everyone’s respective teams!
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