Mornin’ Politocadoes!
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed his Debt Ceiling bill by the skin of his teeth on Wednesday. By a margin of 217-215, McCarthy held on to just enough Republicans to push the bill through. It even benefited from the absences of a few Democratic members. The bill would limit:
“Washington’s borrowing authority by $1.5 trillion or until March 31, whichever comes first, raising the specter of another round of negotiations during the 2024 presidential campaign. The bill would pare spending too 2022 levels and then cap growth at 1% a year, repeal some tax incentives for renewable energy and stiffen work requirements for some antipoverty programs.”
The bill is unlikely to pass the Senate and Biden has signaled that he would veto it even if it did. The whole point of it, though, is to lure Biden into negotiations with the Speaker to negotiate spending cuts. Biden has also made it clear that no spending cuts will be talked about without de-coupling them from raising the debt ceiling.
What’s most interesting about the passage of this bill isn’t that McCarthy got it passed, it’s that it tell us how many Republicans can defect from him and demand changes. Leadership had been scrambling to lock down votes right up until the vote actually happened. As it stands, any bloc of five members in his caucus can extract concessions from him in exchange for their votes.
And this razor thin margin has had its impacts. The Freedom Caucus has, since McCarthy’s run for the Speakership, shown a brazen contempt for the Speaker and has consequentially gained more by withholding their votes for concessions. McCarthy loyalists from the Midwest felt burned by these concessions which threatened to slash ethanol subsidies. Only a late night concession from Leadership prevented them withholding their votes.
There is a sense that those who backed McCarthy aren’t getting anything for their unwavering support. As it was during his election, the most extreme wings of the party are being placated while others are being taken for granted.
And it’s not like McCarthy’s got the Freedom Caucus in his pocket all the way through. They’re threatening to vote against any future version of the bill that is ‘watered down by negotiations with Democrats.”
Nice, well-oiled Machine you’ve got going here, Kevin. Let’s see how this thing keeps moving.
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