We made it to Election Day people, let’s celebrate!! Now that that’s done, we can collectively wring our hands!!
Ok, I listened to the Opening Arguments podcast yesterday (because I’m a patron and got it early) and it helped me because they laid out a timeline of when to panic about what races. I like a good schedule. So I thought I’d share some of it with you. IF THIS IS UNHELPFUL FOR YOU, PLEASE SKIP IT.
First a link to the show: https://openargs.com/
Now, to share some of the info in case you don’t have time to listen to the whole thing.
- Congressional races expensive to poll, so it’s hard to get good info there early
- Currently Congress 220 Dems – 212 Reps – 3 vacancies (Reps Christ, Deutsch resigned, Rep Walorski died)
- Christ’s seat may be an R pickup, Walorski’s seat should hold R and Deutsch’s seat should hold D
- That means Reps need 4 seats to win control of the house
- It looks like R’s will take the House, but it also looks like D’s will keep and might gain in the Senate, THIS IS NOT A DISASTER, it’s not great, but it’s not terrible
- Polling stinks post-Trump though so who really knows anything
Schedule your anxiety over bell weather races here, all times are East Coast US:
6pm, polls are closed in half of Kentucky and most of Indiana – No bell weather races here – Panic level 0
7pm, polls close in GA, SC, VT, VA –
SC – no Senate, no Governor, probably no surprises in Congressional races
VT – no Senate, yes Governor (the R Gov. will most likely be re-elected), probably no surprises in Congressional races
GA – Walker/Warnoff, Kemp/Abrams – obviously this is a big one. First Abrams is expected to lose. It sucks, but that’s what polls say. Walker/Warnock may be too close to call and may end up in a runoff if no one cracks 50%
VA – no Senate, no Governor, HUGE bell weather race in VA-2: Luria (D)/Kiggans (R) – keep your eyes on this one, also, keep an eye on VA-7 – incumbent Spanberger (D) should win, it’ll be a bad night if both Luria and Spanberger lose.
7:29pm – most likely both Warnock/Walker, Luria/Kiggans will be too close to call – no panicking allowed yet
7:30pm – NC, OH, WV polls close
WV – no surprises
OH – watch Senate race between Ryan (D)/Vance (R) – this is a bell weather race! If we’re having a good night, this will be a win! Also, watch OH-1 Congressional race Landsman (D)/Chabot (R-incumbent)
NC – Senate race Beasley (D)/Budd (R), Beasely trails by a couple of points in polls. No run-off if no one hits 50%, and there is a Green party candidate running and I wish he had more sense than to do that in a state with no run-offs or ranked-choice voting. There is an opportunity for D’s to pick up. a House seat in NC-13 Nickel (D)/Hines (R)
7:59pm – We will have more info from races mentioned above. If D’s are competitive in OH and NC, this could mean it’s a good night. If things are still too close to call in OH-1 and OH-13, this is going to be close. If R’s are competitive in OH-9 and NC-13 gets called early…..maybe turn the tv off and play a video game or something. You may not yet panic, however.
OK – this is about a ten-page document I’m getting this from. Really, go listen to it. They break it all down very well and it’s entertaining. It’s Monday and I’m typing this in my office when I’m supposed to be working. The podcast is about an hour long and well-worth your time if you spend any time here.
So let’s all be worried and anxious and whatever we’re going to be (dare I say hopeful?), let’s be it and do it together, because that’s where we’re strongest. Tempers and anxieties may be running high, so let’s all try and show some extra grace to each other and ourselves.