Anna: Well Monty, the day of reckoning has arrived. Israel goes to an election on Monday, and I cannot wait for you to text me at 4 am about it. This is obviously your area of expertise so… what would you like to say about Israel’s elections and how do you think the cats are voting?
Monty: I feel like I might know too much about this election to summarize, but I will attempt to keep it brief.
On Monday, Israel will hold its third general election in eleven months. Each election thus far has resulted in a hung Knesset (parliament), with no one able to form a majority coalition. This is especially difficult because Israel has a voting system based on party-list proportional representation. There are no local representatives; instead everyone votes for a whole party, and the number of seats each party receives is based on their proportion of the national popular vote.
As the election process has gone full Groundhog Day, the number of viable parties has dwindled to a paltry eight (!) as various factions consolidate to maximize their electability. If you want to know more about the parties, check out this video I made last week:
Nothing like this has ever happened before in Israeli history, so why now?
Basically, the biggest issue in Israeli politics is the acting Prime Minister himself. Benjamin Netanyahu has gradually pulled Israel to the right and consolidated power within his own family. However, he and his wife are now under criminal scrutiny. Mrs. Netanyahu is now the subject of two lawsuits and a criminal probe for torturing household staff in the Prime Minister’s Residence and misappropriating government funds for personal use. The acting Prime Minister, meanwhile, is accused of accepting bribes and manipulating public policy for personal favors to supplement his opulent image– itself a stark departure from the Spartan personas of his predecessors. His trial begins 17 March.
Netanyahu has been in power for so long that many Israelis no longer remember a time before him, and the acting Prime Minister has used this to campaign that he is the only person who can ever keep the country safe and prosperous. He is very much a father figure in this way, and it has kept his right-wing Likud party just popular enough to leave the country in political deadlock.
Complicating the situation are two spoiler parties: Yisrael Beitenu, a secularist right-wing party for Russian speakers, refuses to be part of a government that includes Netanyahu’s religious nationalist and ultra-orthodox allies; while the Joint List, a conglomeration of non-Zionist Arab and Communist parties, have steadily gained support while still being politically untenable for a coalition government with opposition leader Benny Gantz.
From where I stand now, this election won’t change anything. There are no undecided voters left, and no amount of shockingly bad news about the Likud or the Netanyahus1 will move the needle. A fourth round of elections is almost inevitable, with the silver lining that Netanyahu will no longer be able to avoid prosecution by then.
See? I told you I know too much.
Anna: honestly? It could have been sooooo much worse. I’m proud of you. But like goddamn Bibi is the wooooorst.