Monty: I am very excited to talk about Ireland’s election this Saturday.

Anna: As am I, but probably for different reasons. I have been reading BBC News as preparation, though as a less modern student of English History I am sort of expecting them to have biased coverage based on religious differences, and that’s probably no longer as applicable? This seems like exactly the worst/best time for Ireland to have an election, but I don’t know enough about which parties are using Brexit to their advantage. I assume you know, as multiple political factions are sort of your specialty. 

Monty: Well, you’re not wrong, but even I find it hard to shake a very dated image of Irish politics as being deeply socially conservative and fiscally liberal. In fact, it’s mostly the opposite now.

Ireland has two main parties: Fine Gael, led by Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar, and Fianna Fáil, led by opposition head Micheál Martin. Both are very centrist, socially progressive parties that support private business, low taxes, and the EU. They’re so similar that political commentators in Ireland are practically obliged to make fun of them for it, which raises the question of why they’re rivals (though they are currently in a coalition with each other).

Basically, when Ireland became independent from the UK, Fine Gael supported the treaty that split Northern Ireland with Britain, while Fianna Fail opposed it. You may have heard there was a civil war over this. The best I can say about it is that at least my own country’s “pro-treaty” and “anti-treaty” equivalents had some other ideological differences to fall back on.

Nevertheless, neither party has enough support to rule without reaching out to the smaller factions, which almost all skew further left; from Labour to the Marxist Solidarity-People Before Profit, a group so doctrinaire that it refuses to have an official leader. The Green Party has also seen a big boost in popularity during this campaign, but the big new player is Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald.

Sinn Féin has been around since Irish independence; in fact Fianna Fail began as an offshoot of it, and Sinn Féin has been the most vocal in reuniting Ireland under the banner of the Republic. Although they historically underperform relative to opinion polls, they may have a shot at challenging the two main parties, and Brexit has little if anything to do with it!

Anna: How does Brexit have little to do with it? This is the perfect time to whip up support for independence and a reunited Ireland, no?

Monty: Two reasons. First, all of the parties in the Dáil (Ireland’s Parliament) already support reunification, and with Northern Ireland ending up on the EU side of that hard border, that goal looks closer than ever. And second, the Republic of Ireland has enough to worry about right now within its own borders.

Much of Ireland’s cultural change over the past 30 years has come as a result of its rapidly increased wealth, and successive governments have kept corporate taxes low to encourage more business and keep that “Celtic Tiger” energy running. But Ireland’s relatively recent ascent to the status of “developed nation” has come with spiraling wealth inequality. The cost of housing has begun to outpace wages, and ever-fewer people seem to be reaping the benefits of Fine Gael’s corporate-friendly policies. That’s what’s got Sinn Féin galloping in to strengthen economic protections. They probably won’t win outright, but they will almost certainly play kingmaker in the next government, and that means some big leftward concessions.

Anna: which is funny, because it’s left of England. How much do you hate me right now?

Monty: How can I hate you? You’ve just outed yourself as Matt Gray!

Anna: Tou-fucking-ché, Monty, touché.

As ever, be respectful of each other, observe the Avocado’s house rules, and do not threaten Mayor McSquirrel.