Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s get into this weekend’s three big new releases, Angel Has Fallen, Overcomer and Ready or Not.
Angel Has Fallen
Once upon a time, there was a movie called Olympus Has Fallen, a film which was essentially Die Hard in the White House and starred Gerald Butler as a one many army on a mission to save the President of the United States. On paper, that should have been enough to ensure a good time, but the movie was so unpleasantly violent (hundreds if not thousands of people get gunned down over the course of it) and took itself so seriously that it ended up being an unsatisfying experience. Still, it made $98 million, so someone out there must’ve liked it more than I did. Years later, a sequel arrived in which the exact same thing happened only in London was released (that one at least looked fun, but I haven’t seen it), and now we have the final chapter (maybe) with Angel Has Fallen. This time, Butler’s Mike Banning is framed for trying to kill the president (in an attempt which involves an army of tiny drones, because why wouldn’t that happen in this series?), and must clear his name while sending the real men responsible on a one-way trip to Hell with help from his father…Nick Nolte.
For fans of this franchise–and despite my naysaying, they are out there–this should serve as more of the same, and the marketing has done a good job of selling it as an event film despite the moderate budgets these films get. Still, with a late August release, it’s probably not going to reach the opening numbers of the last two movies scored. On the other hand, with nothing to compete with it for its target audience and a built-in crowd, it’s going to win the weekend with no trouble whatsoever, and should earn about $17 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Maybe the movie itself is terrible, but the previews do provide some dumb fun, including Gerald Butler–handcuffed and chained and in a prison jumpsuit–able to break free because he’s able to bodyslam the guards, which somehow causes for his transport vehicle to do somersaults.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: I’m pretty easy to please when it comes to action movies, which made it kind of a big deal when I strongly disliked Olympus as much as I did.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $19 million; $52 million finish.
Overcomer
If it’s late August, it means we’re due for another of these Christian movies, this time in the form of Overcomer. Though it’s from the directors of batcrap insane movies like War Room (the one where God gave the bad husband food poisoning to stop him from having an affair) and Fireproof (the one with Kirk Cameron as a firefighter trying to “fireproof” his marriage), this one looks…remarkably normal considering what’s come before it. Okay, the trailer has an athlete with asthma who wants to be a runner, and sure, there’s the elderly man in the hospital who’s spewing wisdom about God and prayer, because that’s what elderly men in the hospital do. But for the most part, this looks like a fairly standard sports movie with some religion thrown in. Maybe the film itself is nuts, but the trailer doesn’t give many indications of that.
Of course, that’s not to say the movie is good. Of the (few) reviews over at Rotten Tomatoes, the score is pretty rotten so far, and there’s no reason to assume it will get better from here. But these movies are review-proof when they are able to connect with their base, and Overcomer did reasonably well yesterday with preview screenings which began in the afternoon. Look for $8 million or so over 1,500 screens.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: I Can Only Imagine was actually a pretty good film.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: This is from the people who made Facing the Giants, War Room, Courageous, and Fireproof. If it’s anything like those movies, it’s going to be pretty silly.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $8 million opening; $30 million finish.
Ready or Not
We’ve come to what is by far the best new release of the weekend, and it’s going to make the least amount of money. That would be Ready or Not, which tells the everyday story of a bride who finds herself fighting for survival during a game of “hide and seek” with her new in-laws. What follows is a sort of demented take on Clue, with all of the mayhem taking place in a mansion as snooty rich people try to kill an outsider. It all looks like wicked good fun, as bizarre as that may sound, and reviews have been glowing at 88% “fresh.”
Unfortunately, it’s probably not going to reach audiences. Awareness for the film seems to be almost non-existent, as it opened to just $2 million on Wednesday (including its preview screenings). Could word-of-mouth save it? At this time of year, not very likely. With no big name actors to help give it a boost, look for $6 million over the next three days.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The film looks nuts in the best way, promising an ultra-violent game of cat-and-mouse with a demented sense of humor.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: The trailer appears to potentially give the movie’s ending away, so thanks for that, Fox Searchlight.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $6 million opening; $22 million finish.
Other fun stuff…
* Once again, I am very late with this. But things should return to the usual here very soon. In the meantime, here’s another terrific Sesame Street Bruce Springsteen parody…