Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s go into this weekend’s two big releases, Spider-Man: Far From Home and Midsommer.
Spider-Man: Far From Home
WARNING: THE FOLLOWING CONTAINS SPOILERS FOR AVENGERS: ENDGAME, SO DON’T GET MAD AT ME LIKE THE INTERNET DID AT TOM HOLLAND
Quick, who’s on average more lucrative at the box office: Batman or Spider-Man? Since Spider-Man: Far From Home opens this week, you can probably guess the answer. Even 2014’s much ridiculed The Amazing Spider-Man 2 made “only” $202 million stateside (and $708 million worldwide). Add the character to the seemingly infinite gravy train that is the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and you’ve got an almost surefire recipe for success.
Of course, Spider-Man: Far From Home is also serving as the first Marvel movie to take place in a post-Endgame world, though in this case it appears to be serving fans a far more traditional superhero tale than that film, which may be what everyone wants at this point. This looks to very much be a sequel to Homecoming more than anything, as instead of Tony Stark (RIP), we have Nick Fury (who didn’t get to talk in Endgame for whatever reason). Instead of Michael Keaton’s Vulture–who was originally slated to return, along with Scorpion (who showed up in the stinger)–we have new bad guy Mysterio. And the title promises a globe-trotting adventure, which should fare well for international audiences.
Making a prediction for Spidey is kind of tricky, since he’s coming home on a Tuesday instead of on a Friday, which is going to keep this one from seeing a record-breaking opening weekend. At the same, it all but ensures a huge six straight days of box office, even as the July 4th holiday always remains something of a wild card. Look for Spider-Man to web up $210 million over his first six days of release.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Homecoming was a fun take on the character after the needlessly uneven Andrew Garfield films, almost playing like a John Hughes superhero movie.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: The MCU feels a little lonely without franchise MVP Robert Downey Jr. in it, and his presence was more or less crucial to selling Homecoming. And while nerds may freak out over seeing Mysterio looking so cool in the trailers, mainstream audiences may be like “Who’s the goldfish bowl guy?”
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $210 million over first six days; $390 million finish.
Midsommer
Another week, another horror film, this time coming to us in the form of Midsommer, which involves a bunch of young folks going to a festival in which I’m sure no shit will go down. Even in a year which has seen a surplus of option for fans of the genre, there is very a much a “Now THIS movie looks scary” vibe going on from the excellent trailers that promises audiences a nightmare of a ride.
There’s also the promise of extreme gore, as Midsommer has been rated R for (deep breath) “disturbing ritualistic violence and grizzly images, strong sexual content, graphic nudity, drug use and language” (sheesh, and I was on board until I found out the movie had bad words). This may or may not hurt the film, as “disturbing” isn’t always a good thing for word-of-mouth, especially in the summer. Last year, director Ari Aster had a moderate hit with Hereditary, but even that film divided moviegoers despite (or perhaps because of) its terrific critical reception. Midsommer is faring slightly worse than Hereditary in terms of reviews, however it still has a very good 80% “freshness” rating over at RT. As I’ve said in the past, a score of as much as 60% can count as wonderful for the genre, but it doesn’t always help sell movie tickets.
For example, 2009’s Drag Me to Hell got great write-ups, but it was such a weird “out there” kind of horror film that it was never going to become a blockbuster. With the “it’s a scary movie for millennials” (whatever that means) conversation that many critics appear to be going for with Midsommer, it’s hard to know how this one will fare long term. Regardless, the creepy previews should be enough to ensure a decent-enough start, even if it ultimately gets eaten by Crawl (yet another horror movie!) next week. Look for $14 million over its first five days.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Misommer has one of the best marketing campaigns I’ve seen for any horror movie this year. The “don’t go in there” vibe that the previews imply is similar to the “but seriously, you might be able to handle this” trailers that helped make the Evil Dead remake into a reasonable hit.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Everything here depends on what kind of movie Midsommer ends up being. mother! was (fairly or not) absolutely loathed by audiences, and vanished from theaters quickly.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $14 million over first five days; $35 million finish.
Other fun stuff…
* Live-action Spider-Man movies, ranked: Spider-Man 2, Spider-Man, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Spider-Man 3, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
* I tend to get defensive over superhero movies like Justice League and Spider-Man 3 which I feel get an unfair shake, but even I will agree that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was the overambitious mess that many accused it of being at the time.
* Sony has gotten a lot of flack for not just giving the full rights to Spidey to Disney, but last year’s Venom proved to be a massive blockbuster, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse earned Sony Pictures Animation their first Academy Award. In other words, they’ve enjoyed the last laugh here.
* There have been, as I’ve mentioned before, a lot of horror movies this summer, including The Intruder, Brightburn, Ma, Child’s Play, Annabelle Comes Home and now Midsommer and we still have Crawl and Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark down the road, along with a 47 Meters Down sequel which I guess someone was wanting.
* A Midsommer Night’s Scream would’ve been a funny alternate title.
* Child’s Play opened less than two week’s ago, but it’s already down to only late night showings at my local theater, in order to make room for Spider-Man having half of the screens to itself. The other half is going to Toy Story 4.
* So what will you guys be doing this weekend? Spidey? Scary festivals? Buzz and Woody? Sound off in the comments!