90th Academy Award Nominations Discussion Thread!

The moment is upon us. In just a few short minutes, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing the nominees in all 24 categories for the 90th Oscars. The road to get here has been a long one already – countless film festivals and critics’ awards; press junkets and screenings; guild nominations and awards; the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA nominations… I could go on. The road ahead is almost just as long, with even more guild awards, the BAFTAs, and the Indie Spirit Awards still to come. I posted my final predictions here on Sunday (https://the-avocado.org/2018/01/21/the-road-to-the-90th-oscars-part-iv/), and will repost the full list below for posterity (and so you all can hold me accountable).

My thinking hasn’t changed much at all since Sunday. The SAGs have happened and the PGA has doled out their awards, and while they could be very predictive of the eventual Oscar winners, they don’t provide much clarity on the Oscar nominees. The acting and producing guilds did reinforce the status of the existing frontrunners (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water, namely), and it does make me worry that Woody Harrelson will sneak into the Best Supporting Actor race at the expense of Michael Stuhlbarg. This weekend also made me more confident in my prediction that I, Tonya is about to earn a Best Picture nomination.

For reference: the influential Producers Guild selected The Shape of Water as Best Picture, with Coco as Best Animated Feature and Jane as Best Documentary Feature. The Screen Actors Guild mimicked the Golden Globes, choosing Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri for Best Ensemble, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell); Allison Janney (I, Tonya) as Best Supporting Actress; and Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) as Best Actor. Wonder Woman surprised with a win in the Best Stunt Ensemble category, but I don’t see that as predictive of any sort of DC surprise this morning.

Here once again are my predictions in all 24 categories. I’ve been pretty consistent in thinking that there will be ten Best Picture nominees, so feel free to make fun of me when there are only seven. I will do my best to type up the actual announced nominations and commentary in real-time. We will see how that goes.

How to Get Away with Mordor’s Official Oscar Nomination Predictions:

Best Picture:
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Dark Horse: Mudbound

Best Director:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards…
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Dark Horse: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Dark Horse: James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Dark Horse: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Best Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Dark Horse: The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Beguiled
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Dark Horse: All the Money in the World

Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Dark Horse: Mary and the Witch’s Flower

Best Documentary Feature:
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Last Man in Aleppo

Dark Horse: Strong Island

Best Foreign Language Film:
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
Foxtrot, Israel
In the Fade, Germany
Loveless, Russia
The Square, Sweden
Dark Horse: The Insult, Lebanon

Best Animated Short:
Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Dark Horse: Lost Property Office

Best Documentary Short:
116 Cameras
Alone
Edith + Eddie
Heroin(e)
Ten Meter Tower

Dark Horse: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Best Live Action Short:
DeKalb Elementary
My Nephew Emmett
Rise of a Star
The Silent Child
Watu Wote: All Of Us

Dark Horse: The Eleven O’clock

Best Cinematography:
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Victoria and Abdul

Best Film Editing:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Dark Horse: Baby Driver

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Dark Horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Phantom Thread

Best Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Dark Horse: Okja

Best Original Score:
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Original Song:
“Evermore,” Beauty and the Beast
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
Dark Horse: “Mighty River,” Mudbound

Best Sound Editing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dark Horse: War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Dark Horse: War for the Planet of the Apes