Well, “Hollywood’s biggest party” has come and gone for this year, and as always the Hollywood Foreign Press Association gave us an evening full of political statements, weird nominations, and weirder wins. Of course, overlap between the HFPA and the Oscars voting body is limited, and even shifted to an earlier date the Globes don’t have much time to influence voters’ opinions.
That said, the past week did give us a lot to chew on as far as what way the wind is blowing over in Academy-land, thanks to nominations from the Producers Guild (PGA), the Writers Guild (WGA), and the American Cinema Editors (ACE) giving us a glimpse into the minds of three of the Academy’s larger branches. Combined with the Screen Actors Guild’s (SAG) nominations back in December, the spate of critics’ awards over the past several months, and, yes, the Golden Globes, we can get a pretty good idea of how things are going to go in a couple of weeks when the Academy’s 2018 nominees are announced.
Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, and Call Me By Your Name have, unsurprisingly, started to separate themselves out from the pack, with the first two earning SAG, WGA, PGA, and ACE nominations and the latter three getting two or three guild nominations each. Lady Bird and Three Billboards… made particularly strong showings at the Golden Globes, splitting the Best Picture and Best Actress awards. The Big Sick’s star also seems to be rising, with noms from SAG, PGA, and WGA. It’s been a mixed bag for Dunkirk (PGA, ACE) and The Post (PGA, ACE), but they’re still close to sure things in the Best Picture race. Two interesting additions at this late stage are Molly’s Game and I, Tonya, which both garnered recognition from PGA, WGA, and ACE. Phantom Thread, The Florida Project, and The Greatest Showman have fallen away from the pack (no guild nominations and empty-handed at the Globes), but Mudbound and Darkest Hour look to still be hanging in.
I’ve summarized the SAG Ensemble, PGA, WGA, and ACE nominees below for your reference. The American Society of Cinematographers also released its nominees on Tuesday, and they tend to be very predictive of the Academy’s Best Cinematography nominees (though they don’t really have any bearing on the bigger races). For your reference, ASC nominated Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, and The Shape of Water.
As always, look down in the comments for threads on Best Picture, Best Director, the four acting categories, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Original/Adapted Screenplay, as well as your General Discussion Thread. Looking ahead, we have BAFTA nominations on Wednesday and both Directors Guild nominations and the Critics Choice Awards on Thursday, then the slow build to the Oscar nominations announcement on January 23. I will be posting on either Wednesday or Thursday of the week of 1/23 with predictions in ALL of the categories from Best Picture to Best Animated Short to Best Cinematography, so look forward to that!\
SAG Best Cast nominees: The Big Sick; Get Out; Lady Bird; Mudbound; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Producers Guild nominees: The Big Sick; Call Me By Your Name; Dunkirk; Get Out; I, Tonya; Lady Bird; Molly’s Game; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Wonder Woman
Writers Guild Original Screenplay nominees: The Big Sick; Get Out; I, Tonya; Lady Bird; The Shape of Water
Writers Guild Adapted Screenplay nominees: Call Me By Your Name; The Disaster Artist; Logan; Molly’s Game; Mudbound
American Cinema Editors Dramatic nominees: Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; Molly’s Game; The Post; The Shape of Water
American Cinema Editors Comedy nominees: Baby Driver; Get Out; I, Tonya; Lady Bird; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missour