This Sunday marks the end of yet another awards season. The lead-up to the Oscars has been a curiously staid affair (you know there’s not much happening when so much hay gets made of something as unremarkable as Timothee Chalamet’s tactless “ballet and opera are dead” remarks), which belies the truth that many of this season’s biggest awards have more or less already been decided. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners broke the record for most Oscar nominations by a single film back in January with 16 noms, but it’s unlikely to come away with the most wins this weekend. That award will instead probably go to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, which has been racking up the major awards all season long. Let’s dive in…

The easy bet for Best Picture is One Battle After Another. It took the Golden Globe – Comedy/Musical, swept the top prizes from the three major critics’ associations (New York, Los Angeles, and the National Board of Review), won the BAFTA for Best Film, and took the top prize from the Producers Guild, a long-time Oscars predictor. The only other realistic competitors are Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, which won the Golden Globe – Drama, and Sinners, which won the Screen Actors Guild / SAG / Actor Award for Best Ensemble. Best Director seems even more cut and dry, with Anderson winning the prize at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, NBR, Los Angeles Critics, and the Directors Guild. None of the other nominees have come away with any other major wins this season. One Battle After Another’s above-the-line strength will likely carry Anderson to a win in Adapted Screenplay as well: he won the equivalent awards at BAFTA and the Golden Globes. Train Dreams took the NBR’s adapted screenplay prize, but the closest competitor to One Battle here is probably Hamnet. Regardless, I don’t see Anderson losing. 

The four acting awards feel like a different story. A month ago I would have said that at least three of the awards were done deals: Timothee Chalamet for Actor in Marty Supreme, Jessie Buckley for Actress in Hamnet, and Stellan Skarsgård for Supporting Actor in Sentimental Value. Thanks to BAFTA and SAG, things have gotten spicy, to say the least. Smart money still says Buckley, who won the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe – Drama awards, is the runaway favorite for Actress, as she has been all season long. If you look at the precursors, there’s an interesting case to be made for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – Byrne has the second-largest haul, with the Golden Globe – Comedy/Musical and a rare trifecta sweep with Los Angeles, New York, and the NBR. I’m sticking with Buckley. 

Quite a race is shaping up in Actor, with every nominee having at least one major precursor. Chalamet took the Golden Globe – Comedy/Musical. Leonardo DiCaprio won with the NBR for his work in One Battle After Another. Ethan Hawke won with the Los Angeles critics for Blue Moon. Michael B. Jordan is fresh off a win with the all-important SAG for Sinners. Wagner Moura took the Golden Globe – Drama and the New York critics awards for The Secret Agent. It probably comes down to Chalamet and Jordan, the former now a three-time nominee at only 30 years old and the latter with his first nomination but a strong body of work. Predictions have moved strongly in Jordan’s favor after the unexpected SAG win, but I have to stick with Chalamet, despite his messy campaign.

Stellan Skarsgård took home prizes from the Golden Globes and the Los Angeles critics for his work in Sentimental Value, but has recently been facing a strong upswell of support for One Battle After Another, with Sean Pean taking the big wins at SAG (where Skarsgård wasn’t even nominated) and BAFTA. Benicio del Toro, who won with the NBR and the New York critics for One Battle, could play spoiler, but this is likely between Penn and Skarsgård. The momentum is with Penn, but I’m going to give it to Skarsgård with a mixture of category fraud, industry love for an accomplished career, Penn already having two Oscars, and vote splitting between Penn and del Toro. 

Supporting Actress is going to come down to the wire, with four possible contenders at this stage. The least likely of the four is Inga Ibsdottir Lilleas for Sentimental Value – she only has an NBR win at this point, and is competing against her costar, Elle Fanning. Next is Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners. She got a major win in the category at BAFTA two weeks ago but I think is unlikely to be competing for a win here unless there is a major surge for Sinners at the last minute. No, this probably comes down to Teyana Taylor’s work in One Battle After Another, for which she won with the Los Angeles critics and the Golden Globes, or Amy Madigan’s turn in Weapons, which has garnered recognition from the New York critics and SAG. I’m going with Madigan, but don’t be at all surprised to see Taylor on the stage Sunday night!

Original Screenplay feels like the most certain win of the night for Sinners. It’s up against fellow Picture nominees Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value, as well as Blue Moon and International Film contender It Was Just an Accident, but with BAFTA and NBR wins under his belt this one is probably going to Coogler. Other awards that seem likely to end up in the hands of the filmmakers behind Sinners: the brand new Oscar for Casting, which I see as the Academy’s equivalent of the SAG for Best Ensemble; and Score, following up on wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. 

I already have One Battle After Another taking Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, as well as a top two contender in Supporting Actress, so where else does it pick up wins? It probably takes it in Cinematography (it won at BAFTA and with the cinematographers guild, though Sinners is a strong alternate), and Film Editing, having similarly won with BAFTA and the editors guild. 

The rest of the “below-the-line” / tech categories get a bit dicier. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein cleaned up at BAFTA, with wins in Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. It also won with those respective guilds (though Sinners also took an award from the makeup artists and hairstylists, and One Battle from the art directors), so it’s hard to bet against a repeat trio of awards for Frankenstein here. Avatar: Fire and Ash took the Visual Effects award with BAFTA and the VFX guild, and is the overwhelming favorite for the same Oscar. F1 took the BAFTA for Sound and the annual award from the sound mixers guild; although Frankenstein and Sinners won with the sound editors guild, F1 seems like the easy pick. 

The last likely multi-award winner of the night is Netflix’s Kpop Demon Hunters. It’s the runaway favorite for both Animated Feature and Song (for “Golden”), with only Sinners playing potential spoiler in Song (“I Lied to You”). Documentary Feature doesn’t have a lot of precursors to go off of, with many of the winners not garnering nominations here. Mr. Nobody Against Putin won with BAFTA, so it’s a contender, but I have to give it to The Perfect Neighbor: it’s not often that a popular favorite ends up nominated by the documentary branch of the Academy, but when it does, it tends to do well. International Feature is going to come down between the two foreign language Picture nominees, Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Sentimental Value broke records with its impressive haul of nine Oscar nominations and won at BAFTA; with only Skarsgard in Supporting Actor as a strong chance for an award, this could be the spot to reward it. On the other hand, The Secret Agent has four nominations – still a great result! – with wins from the Golden Globes and the New York and Los Angeles critics. I’m giving it to Sentimental Value, if barely. 

Finally, we come to the shorts categories. This year, I’ve chosen to take the extremely scientific path of predicting these by asking the friend who happens to be sitting across from me while I write this. Here are her picks: for Animated Short, Forevergreen; for Documentary Short,  Armed with Just a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud; and for Live Action Short, Jane Austen’s Period Drama.

Complete Predictions:
One Battle After Another – 5 awards: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing
Sinners – 3 awards: Original Screenplay, Casting, Score
Frankenstein – 3 awards: Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design
Sentimental Value – 2 awards: Supporting Actor, International Feature
Kpop Demon Hunters – 2 awards: Animated Feature, Song
Marty Supreme – 1 award: Actor
Hamnet – 1 award: Actress
Weapons – 1 award: Supporting Actress
The Perfect Neighbor – 1 award: Documentary Feature
F1 – 1 award: Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 1 award: Visual Effects
Forevergreen – 1 award: Animated Short
Armed with Just a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – 1 award: Documentary Short
Jane Austen’s Period Drama – 1 award: Live Action Short

And there we have it! The Oscars start even earlier this year, at 7 PM ET / 4 PM PT, live on ABC and Hulu. Sound off with your own predictions below!

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You can find more of my reviews and musings on the Oscars here on The Avocado, and on Letterboxd.