Thursday morning at 8:30 EST, Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman will announce the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards. 2025 was a big year for Hollywood, with the domestic market continuing to rebuild from the one-two punch of the Covid pandemic and the joint SAG-WGA strikes, while at the same time facing tremendous pressure from DC and within LA from arch-conservatives hell-bent on remaking the entertainment industry in their image. Amidst this tumult, the Academy finds themselves on a bit of a hot streak: after years of conscious expansion and diversification of the Oscars voting body, the past several Best Picture winners (Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer, and even to an extent Anora) have been received with near-universal affection, or at the very least grudging acceptance. 

This awards season has felt inevitable, to be quite honest. Based on precursor nominations and wins so far this season, conventional wisdom says that three films are due for double-digit nominations (and likely to dominate in wins come March, too): One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet. OBAA has been steamrolling the season, with the rare “trifecta sweep” of Best Picture wins among the New York and Los Angeles film critics and the National Society of Film Critics. It won Best Picture – Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes, and has earned nominations from the Producers Guild (PGA) and Directors Guild (DGA), plus a SAG Ensemble nom (oh, I beg your pardon, a nomination for the Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture). So where does it land tomorrow morning? Above the line, it’s easily getting into Picture, Director (likely a coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson), Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (with two nominations for Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn), Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), and Adapted Screenplay. I think Chase Infiniti also nets an Actress nomination, which would make OBAA the first film since American Hustle to garner nominations in all four acting categories. It seems like a shoe-in to play for the Academy’s brand new award for Best Casting, and will pile up the tech nominations, too. I’m expecting to see OBAA show up in Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, and Sound. That would tie the record for most Oscar nominations currently held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land with 14, if you’re playing along at home. 

Sinners has held on to strong awards buzz since the spring, and although its run with critics’ groups has been drowned out by OBAA, it’s never not been in the conversation and is also sitting on PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble nominations. It’s a certainty in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Michael B. Jordan hasn’t been looking quite as strong in recent weeks as expected, but I think he’ll still get into Actor. On the other hand, Wunmi Mosaku has been surging late in the season, and I think she’ll easily end up on the Supporting Actress slate. Miles Caton has been piling up the young actor awards and pulled off a very unexpected SAG Supporting Actor nomination. I don’t think it’ll be enough for him to overcome the big guns and fraud dominating the category this year, but consider him in the running. Sinners is obviously showing up on the Casting slate (TBD whether or not this ends up playing like the Academy’s version of the SAG Ensemble award), and below the line it’s certain to garner nominations for Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score, Song, and Sound. That haul would also tie the nominations record, so I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that it breaks the record by edging out a very soft Wicked: For Good in Visual Effects for its 15th nom. 

Our third big contender this year is Hamnet, Chloe Zhao’s latest. Picture is a given for the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture – Drama, and I think Zhao is the last absolute lock in Director. Jessie Buckley is the closest thing to a lock to win an acting award this year, so she’s certain to show up in Actress. Paul Mescal will fraud his way into a Supporting Actor nom, and Adapted Screenplay will round things out above the line. I think that like OBAA and Sinners, this SAG Ensemble nominee also gets into the first ever Casting slate, then rounds things out with Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, and Production Design. Smart money says Hamnet shows up in Score, but given how many scores have been outright disqualified for having less preexisting work than this, I think that would be a decidedly weird choice from such a persnickety branch and have it instead as my alternate. In the end, Hamnet could come in with a whopping 10 nominations. 

Another big haul probably goes to Marty Supreme. It’s not looking to be competitive for many awards outside of Actor, but it should pick up Picture, Supporting Actress (Odessa A’zion), and Original Screenplay noms. Director is a huge question mark right now. Recent tradition holds that one of the DGA nominees won’t make it onto the Academy’s shortlist, and if that trend continues it will be either Josh Safdie here or Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein. I think del Toro is out and Safdie is in, but he’s in a tight race for that fifth slot (more on that in a moment). After that, it’s Casting (SAG Ensemble nom, bay-bee!), Film Editing, and Score to round things out. I also have Marty as my alternate in Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design, so it’s not out of the question that it has a very, very good morning.

Speaking of Frankenstein, after a fairly tepid reception at the fall festivals, it’s proven to be something of an awards juggernaut thanks to its technical merits. I’m confident it shows up in Picture and Adapted Screenplay, and Jacob Elordi will quite likely be our second fraudulent nominee of the day in Supporting Actor. What about those technical merits? Well, Frankenstein should show up in Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score, and Visual Effects, for nine total nominations. 

There’s a clump of very well-received foreign language films this year that all have one thing in common: they’re distributed by NEON, who went on an insane buying spree at Cannes in a desperate attempt to make sure they lengthened their Palme d’Or record. The unfortunate news is that they haven’t come anywhere near giving these films equally strong campaigns. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value blasted into the race at Cannes, and although it didn’t eke out the Palme win, it was always going to be NEON’s #1. I think Trier is del Toro’s replacement in Director, and although Renate Reinsve’s strength has waned as the season drags on, she’ll pull through with her overdue first Actress nomination. Stellan Skarsgard is the Supporting Actor frontrunner (many would say fraud, I disagree for once). Although Elle Fanning was long considered the likelier Supporting Actress nomination, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has really picked up steam throughout the season, and I think she gets the nomination, with Fanning as my alternate in the category. Original Screenplay and International Film are guaranteed, and I think with three acting noms it picks up Casting despite being shut out by SAG. Sentimental Value doesn’t seem likely to pick up any tech noms, though I do have it as my alternate in Film Editing. 

NEON’s #2 is The Secret Agent, which has been gaining ground over the past few weeks. It’s definitely getting into Picture, Actor (Wagner Moura), and International Film, and probably Original Screenplay. I have it as my alternate in Casting, and am putting Kleber Mendonca Filho as my alternate in Director as the first piece of a big, big swing: I think that other than an International Film nom, Jafar Panahi’s Palme winner It Was Just an Accident gets shut out. Smart money would have it showing up in Picture and Original Screenplay, but after a weak showing with critics’ awards and the guilds I’m knocking it down to my alternate slot in each. For a while it seemed like Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice could get into Picture, Director, and Actor, but it hasn’t surged like it needed to despite very strong box office results, so I think it also walks away with only an International Film nomination, and I have it as my Adapted Screenplay alternate. NEON’s fifth and final contender, Oliver Laxe’s Sirat will round out the all NEON all the time International Film category. It had a stunningly strong showing on the Academy shortlists, also appearing on the lists for Casting, Cinematography, Score, and Sound. This makes it very tempting to take a swing and put it in Picture, but I think Sirat will have to settle for Score and Sound nominations. 

Yorgos Lanthimos has unexpectedly become a bit of an Academy favo(u)rite, and while I don’t think he’ll make it into Director for Bugonia, it seems a likely Picture nominee, as well as Actress (Emma Stone), Actor (Jesse Plemons), and Adapted Screenplay. Plemons has been weakening a bit as the season wanes on, with voters increasingly seeking to recognize Ethan Hawke’s work in Blue Moon. Blue Moon isn’t likely to show up anywhere else though, and unlike in Actress, a film getting a sole nomination in Actor is more rare, with the only examples this decade Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Mescal in Aftersun. Hawke comes in as my alternate. 

Netflix lucked out that Frankenstein revived, but for a while it was looking like their #1 this season would end up being Train Dreams. Voter interest is clearly there for this subdued feature from Clint Bentley, and I think it’ll sneak onto the Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Song slates. Another film that voters are somewhat more unexpectedly going for is Zach Cregger’s Weapons. Amy Madigan will be competing for the win in Supporting Actress rather than begging for the all too rare acting nomination for a horror film, and while I don’t think this sneaks into Casting, after an unexpected PGA nom Weapons is my surprise pick to take the final Best Picture slot. 

We’re getting close to the end, I promise! There are three one-time Best Picture contenders worth mentioning together that are likely settling for a handful of tech noms only: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, and Wicked: For Good. James Cameron’s third Avatar epic is a certainty in Visual Effects and I think likely in Production Design and Sound, plus it’s my alternate in Song. F1 should show up in Sound and Visual Effects, and probably also Film Editing. Wicked: For Good’s middling reception has led to a collapse compared to last year’s first film in the duology. Ariana Grande still has a strong shot at Supporting Actress, but I don’t think it’s happening. Otherwise, it’ll settle for noms in Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Song, and is my alternate is Sound and Visual Effects.

Other films settling for just one or two tech noms: The Smashing Machine in Makeup and Hairstyling; Superman in Visual Effects; and, I am not making this up, Diane Warren biopic Diane Warren: Relentless in Song. 

I’d be remiss not to mention what I think is replacing It Was Just an Accident in Original Screenplay: Eva Victor’s excellent directorial debut, Sorry, Baby. Another film likely settling for a lone above-the-line nomination is If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, which will easily net Rose Byrne her first nomination in Actress. It would be smart of me to put Kate Hudson’s work in Song Sung Blue as my alternate in Actress, but I’m going with my heart on this one and giving that slot to Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee, even though Searchlight’s disastrous campaign has left this offbeat contender stranded for most of the season. I also think Ann Lee pulls a fast one and sneaks into Costume Design. 

Animated Feature doesn’t seem particularly up for debate this year: it’ll be KPop Demon Hunters by a country mile (Song, too), with the rest of the slots going to Arco, Elio, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, and Zootopia 2. Mamoru Hosoda’s Scarlet is my alternate. Documentary Feature is always a tough one to predict, but I’m gonna go for it! I think the three strongest contenders are Come See Me in the Good Light,Cover-Up, and The Perfect Neighbor, followed by 2000 Meters to Andriivka and My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow, with The Alabama Solution as my alternate.

And that’s that! Sound off down in the comments with your own predictions, and I’ll see you bright and early tomorrow!