2025 Box Office Preview: January-April

2025 is already here, and while the “real world” isn’t feeling especially cheerful right now, the movies will hopefully at least be able to provide an escape from it.

Last year, Hollywood was struggling with the aftermath of two high profile strikes, resulting in fewer films coming out. The upside to this (if we can even call it that) was seeing a number of tentpoles perform like true old school blockbusters, legging it out in a way rarely witnessed in the supposed streaming era. Inside Out 2 somehow became the biggest animated movie of all time! Would that have happened if it had more competition? Probably not.

2025, however, is looking more “normal” in terms of its release schedule. But we aren’t quite out of the woods yet. Who knew that not resolving two easily avoidable strikes could have such long-term consequences? So while the calendar is more full, it is still feeling slightly empty, like something’s missing. But hey, maybe I’ll be singing a different tune this time next year (although that tune will most likely be a song from Wicked: For Good, but more on that another time).

So…what will the big hits be? Rather than do the usual “here are ten surefire hits” lists that everyone else churns out in January, I’ve decided to do things a little differently. I’ll pick one potential winner from each month, which is going to be a lot harder than it might sound. But I’ll give it the old college try (and as Plankton says, “I went to college!”).

JANUARY

Okay. Let’s cut to the chase: even by its already low standards, January is looking pretty fucking bleak this year. 2024 at least brought us moderate hits like The Beekeeper and that Mean Girls remake which seemed to disappoint everyone, but 2025? It’s not giving me a lot to work with.

Things “kick off” on Friday with Den of Thieves 2, which Lionsgate is treating like an event film. Apparently, people really liked the first one, but we’re still talking about a sequel to a heist flick that came out six years ago.

Moving onto January 17th, we have Wolf Man, which might be our biggest hope for a hit this month. Maybe. See, while I think this looks like a solid enough reimagining of the Universal classic, it really…doesn’t seem to have any relationship to that other than the title. Go figure since it’s from the same person responsible for 2020’s The Invisible Man, which had even less to do with its so-called source material and really can’t be called a “remake” at all (I personally hated it, but hey, others seemed to like it, so what do I know?). Going against it will be One of Them Days, which really looks like it should have gone straight-to-cable.

January 24th brings us Flight Risk, which looks like an entertaining thriller with a cool concept. Granted, it’s also being directed by Mel Gibson–whose name isn’t even mentioned in the TV spots—which may or may not hurt it. Finally, January 31st gives the world Dog Man, which has a simply delightful trailer and could be a sleeper surprise. Also, it’s the first family-friendly outing of the year. The only thing that might be holding it back is its comically dark premise, but hey, this one looks fun, and kids adore the book series on which its based.

Also opening that day is Companion, which certainly has an interesting teaser, although I have no fucking idea what it’s actually about. Was Barbarian popular enough to sell a movie from the same director on that reputation alone?

WINNER: Dog Man

FEBRUARY

Not sure if we even need to talk about this month in much detail. The winner is easily going to be Captain America: Brave New World, even if the film itself ends up sucking. This has gone through production hell for what seems like forever–resulting in its budget inflating, similar to what happened with The Marvels–and test screenings have reportedly been awful. But it’s still got that MCU brand going for it, and however much some might claim the franchise has faltered in recent years (I mean, c’mon, who wanted a story about Howard the Duck and Darcy fucking and then having a baby?!?!), when you promise audiences Harrison Ford turning into a giant red monster, folks will show up.

But will they show up for anything else? February 7th brings us Love Hurts and Heart Eyes, and I keep mixing up the titles of these two. Heart Eyes is being sold entirely on its ridiculously gruesome trailer alone, while Love Hurts looks…kind of fun? I guess? Like, look, I love Key Huy Quan as much as the next guy, but when I look at him I don’t really think “retired deadly assassin with the combat skills of John Wick.”

Opening on the same day as Captain America on February 14th is Paddington in Peru. Paddington 2 is one of the greatest movies ever made, but Americans really didn’t turn up for it, because Americans are stupid. Fortunately, these films make their money internationally, which is how we’re getting a third entry. Fingers crossed this series lasts long enough for us to get Paddington in Space.

As for the rest of February, the only film that stands out as having potential is The Monkey on the 21st. It’s got a great trailer, the Stephen King name, and it’s from the director of last year’s surprise hit Longlegs (who also helmed 2020’s boring Gretel and Hansel, but let’s not talk about that). The 21st also brings us The Unbreakable Boy, a family drama about NOPE, NOPE, NOPE! NOT TOUCHING THIS UNTIL I HAVE TO DOWN THE ROAD! Finally, The Last Breath opens on the 28th and looks like a decent survival thriller, even if its trailer seems to show the whole film.

WINNER: Captain America: Brave New World

MARCH

The month kicks off with the release of the long-delayed Mickey 17. Yes, the concept is intriguing. Yes, it’s from the director of Parasite. And I’d be the last to dispute Robert Pattinson’s skills as an actor. So is it a hot take to say this looks kind of…bad? Like, maybe it just has a weak trailer. Maybe I was just in the wrong mood when I watched it. But once I hear whatever the fuck it is that Pattinson is doing with his voice (which he claims was inspired by Ren & Stimpy of all things), I’m like “yeah, this is gonna flop hard.” I would be very happy to be proven wrong, though.

On March 14th, we have Black Bag. Just how many times is Steven Soderberg going to come out of retirement? Anyway, this looks like an exciting spy flick…or it would if the preview didn’t tell me everything that happens. Then again, trailers for Soderberg’s pictures tend to be kind of misleading, so maybe the actual movie is just people talking quietly in hotel rooms. Aiming for thrills on the same day are Novocaine (a man who can feel no pain goes on a killing rampage) and Opus (a celebrity reappears after missing for decades, so no, it’s sadly not about a penguin).

Moving on, we have what will probably be our biggest film of the month on the 21st, whether you like it or not. That’s right, it’s Disney’s fucking Snow White “remake” that everyone’s been complaining about for years. You don’t need me to tell you it looks like crap, but you know what? It kind of looks like the sort of crap I might, well, enjoy. Yes, the CGI dwarves look terrible, but they look gloriously terrible. Like even if the movie is a mess, I still think I’ll have fun with it. Is there something wrong with? Something’s wrong with me. Anyway, families always show up for these, and even with all of its production woes, it should still easily rule March. Sorry.

Now, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but picture this: Jason Statham. He has a mysterious past as far as his career goes, but now, he’s trying to leave it all behind and just be a good dad. But then, something happens that forces his hand, and he returns to his very specific set of skills to unleash Hell on some bad guys. Anyway, that’s the plot of A Working Man, and it opens on the 28th.

WINNER: Snow White

APRIL

It might be early in the year, but I’ve already reached the point where I have less to talk about. I’m not sure what some of the films on Box Office Mojo’s release schedule even are, or if they’re even coming out at all. But what I can get into is A Minecraft Movie. This was an internet punching bag until it wasn’t, and now people seem kind of excited for it? It doesn’t really matter since this is going to win April more or less by default when it begins gameplay on the 4th.

Elsewhere, we have The Amateur on the 11th, in which Rami Malek seeks revenge on those who killed his wife in creative and very amateurish ways. I’m not being ironic when I say it looks like a good time. The wannabe blockbuster of the month is Sinners, which I think is a vampire film. But the trailer is kind of confusing. Hopes are supposedly high for this one as it has the Easter Holiday to itself, but I dunno. We’ll find out when it comes for blood on the 18th, I guess. Lastly, on the 25th, the video game adaptation Until Dawn will apparently come out. Maybe. It involves a bunch of people being mauled apart at a ski lodge, but we haven’t seen anything from this one so far. So…yeah, I’m thinking it’s getting pushed back.

WINNER: A Minecraft Movie

Come back in April for my preview of the summer movie season (May-August). Or don’t. I’m not your mom.