Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s get into this weekend’s solo big new release, It: Chapter Two.
It: Chapter Two
It’s been a while, but we finally have a surefire hit at the box office, even if I’m not sure it will float as high as some are expecting it to, but more on that in a bit. The original It was a massive hit back in 2017, becoming the biggest horror movie ever with a total gross of $327 million (surpassing the record set by The Exorcist decades earlier). Helping it was not only a sense of nostalgia for the early 90’s Tim Curry miniseries (which was fairly silly in many ways, but hey, it was Tim Fucking Curry, so I won’t complain), but also the fact that it was one of author Stephen King’s best known properties. A clown terrorizing children is a pretty easy sell, so a sequel being greenlit almost immediately after it opened was only natural.
Can Chapter Two repeat the black magic? Giving it a slight edge is that moviegoers have been fairly penny wise at the cinema for the past few weeks, which means they’re due to be ready to spend their money on a blockbuster again. There are, however, two potential roadblocks. The big one is the running time, which is ridiculous at–wait for it–two hours and 49 minutes. This seems to be the main thing having an impact on the sequel’s current 68% “freshness” score over at Rotten Tomatoes, with even critics who like the film saying that it’s a bit on the lengthy side. Why make a horror film about a killer clown nearly three hours long?
What’s also up in the air is whether or not Pennywise terrorizing the children who survived the original now all grown up will have the same kind of aura with audiences. There’s just something genuinely chilling about a clown in a sewer killing a child, which may explain why another critical consensus is that the first film was scarier than this installment. Helping the prestige factor–but probably not impacting things one way or another as far as box office is concerned–are some reasonably big names this time around as the adult Losers Club members, including James McAvoy, Jessica Chastain, and Bill Hader.
All of that being said, the marketing for Chapter Two has been great, treating it like a true event film, which is something studios rarely do with the horror genre. Tracking is all over the place, with projections ranging from cautious at $80 million to downright preposterous at $140 million. I’m going to play safe and place it somewhere in the middle of those numbers, not surpassing the original’s record-breaking $120 million, but still extremely strong with $105 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The trailers are terrifying, particularly the “what kind of old lady are you?” teaser. And this has been a very good year for horror movies overall.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Again, I am worried about the running time here. While I don’t think it’s going to hurt the opening weekend in any significant manner, it could influence word-of-mouth if audiences feel the film is a butt hurter.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $105 million opening; $245 million finish.
Other fun stuff…
* Warner Bros. is looking at two potential hits involving clowns this fall, as in addition to Pennywise they also have Joker opening in October.
* As I’ve said, there have been a lot of horror movies this year, but no major ones are opening in October (well, unless you count The Addams Family and Zombieland 2). Go figure.
* Speaking of horror movies, the news that this summer’s Midsommar apparently WON’T be getting a disc release of any sort is troubling.
* Also speaking of horror movies: Warner Bros. will be counting on finding success with the genre again with Doctor Sleep this November. It’s selling itself as a sequel to the movie version of The Shining, even though Stephen King wrote it primarily as a way to “reclaim” the book.
* And speaking of Stephen King, Pet Semetary had by far the best marketing campaign for any horror movie this year, with an incredibly scary teaser trailer which should’ve made it into a bigger hit than it was.
* This has been a good year for horror movies which also get good reviews, but two of my favorites of the year so far–Greta and Brightburn–didn’t do much to thrill critics. Go figure.
* What will YOU be doing at the movies this weekend? Will you be seeing It: Chapter Two, or will you be seeing It: Chapter Two? Sound off in the comments!