Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s go into this weekend’s three big releases, Men in Black: International, Shaft and Late Night.
MIB: International
I’m not going to spend time telling you what Men in Black is here: you’ve all seen the original movie several times by now. The 1997 sci-fi comedy was an absolutely massive hit, earning $250 million at a time which such numbers were extremely rare. Of course, no one is expecting for this not quite sequel/not quite reboot to make that kind of moolah, as the film appears to be generating barely anything resembling buzz.
The trailers are fine, mind you, promising the same action and laughs that made the Will Smith/Tommy Lee Jones entries such charmers. But that’s exactly what’s being promised here: more of the same. Granted, stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson appear to have great chemistry, plus we have Liam Neeson serving as the new “straight man” and Emma Thompson reprising her cameo from MIB III in the role once played by Rip Torn (his death between sequels was definitely one of the more bizarre choices this series has made). It all looks…perfectly okay, but there’s nothing that makes this a “must-see” summer tentpole material, either, meaning that MIB: International should disappoint with $24 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The film serves as an unofficial Thor: Ragnarok reunion for Hemsworth and Thompson, who both look to be in top comedic form here. Hemsworth’s clumsy introduction of “We are the Men and Women in Black” is especially amusing.
Why Your Fortune Cooking Tells You To Stay Away: As with last weekend’s Dark Phoenix, there’s a “been there, done that” aspect to the marketing here that could make this film skippable to many, and Toy Story 4 opening next week isn’t going to give those battling the scum of the universe any favors.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $24 million opening; $78 million total.
Shaft
Excuse me, did I say that Men in Black: International was lacking hype? Well that’s nothing compared to how Shaft is faring, rather baffling considering that on paper this is something that should be a surefire hit. With Samuel L. Jackson and Richard Roundtree both returning to play their titular detectives in the same movie, you would think this would be a movie that people were at least talking about, outside of saying “I had the trailer for that before John Wick 3.” Yes, Jackson’s first Shaft film came out 19 years ago, so that could be a reason for why people don’t seem to be excited for this installment, but one would still expect for the “brand name” of the character to pack just a little more of a punch.
The good news for distributor Warner Bros. is that the film is reported to have a modest budget of $45 million or so. Helmed by Fantastic Four and Barbershop director Tim Story, it looks like exactly what you would get from someone with that kind of resume, with the trailer showcasing extremely broad comedy amid some gun fights. But an amusing enough preview isn’t going to be enough to make a hit here, and Shaft should also underwhelm with an opening of $12 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Samuel L. Jackson has been in too many awesome movies to mention here.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: He was also in Jumper.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $12 million opening; $37 million total.
Late Night
I’m sorry, did I say that Shaft wasn’t tracking very well? Because that’s nothing compared to Late Night, an R-rated comedy that appears to have been incredibly ill-timed, landing smack in the middle of summer movie season at a time when there’s simply too much competition for it to even have a chance of breathing. Even its needlessly generic title is working against it, as it simply sounds like you’re talking about last night’s television schedule when you mention it to someone. How much trouble is Late Night in? So much trouble that the studio released a final trailer today, and that’s never a good sign.
In the era of streaming, perhaps no genre has suffered more theatrically than the straightforward comedy. When everything’s available to see on televisions and tablets so quickly, why pay $10 or so to see something unless it demands to be seen on the big screen? Even films like What Men Want and Little, which probably would’ve been $100 million hits if they had opened even five years ago, have struggled financially. And reviews don’t help. We’ve seen warmly received comedies like Booksmart and Long Shot (which had Charlize Theron and Seth Rogen in it, no less) bomb, and even The Upside–which found success–fell more into the “dramedy” category, with the star power of Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart helping it greatly. Late Night doesn’t have an especially flashy concept behind it, centering around Emma Thompson (in her second movie of the weekend!) as a talk show host who reluctantly tries to re-invent her image with help from an intern played by Mindy Kaling (who also co-produced and wrote the film). Even those who want to see this film are probably going to wait for Redbox.
Making things even worse is that Late Night is an attempt by Amazon to get into the summer movie market, with the posters proclaiming it “An Amazon Original” being potentially confusing to audiences as that is normally associated with Amazon Prime streaming content. Some will point to the great per-screen averages the film enjoyed when it opened in only four theaters last weekend, but that’s not going to save Late Night from opening to only $3 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The film’s been getting pretty solid reviews. And when Kaling is funny, she’s very funny.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Moviegoers only have but so much money in their wallets, so there doesn’t seem to be any particular reason to rush to see this in the theaters when you can just catch it on Amazon Prime for free in about two months.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $3 million opening; $11 million total.
Other fun stuff…
* The Dead Don’t Die also opens this weekend, but it’s only coming out on about 500 screens or so. A film must play on at least 1,000 screens for it to count as “wide” for me, which is why I didn’t cover it here.
* The first Men in Black remains the best of the series, but the sequel works as breezy if not undemanding fun, even if it faced some serious production hurdles including having to come up with a brand new climax following the September 11th attacks (the original final battle involved the World Trade Center). I enjoyed MIB III, but found its ending just a little too bittersweet for a franchise that gets laughs out of having a swearing pug dog.
* The poster for Late Night infuriates me with how lazy it is, with Mindy Kaling smugly grinning as she rests on a stoic Emma Thompson’s shoulder. You’d be forgiven if you thought it was actually a poster for a new sitcom coming to NBC this fall.
* Last weekend, I was pretty off with my prediction for The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($80 million vs. $46 million), but was at least in the ballpark for Dark Phoenix ($41 million vs. $33 million).
* My verdict on Dark Phoenix? It’s not terrible!
* My verdict on The Secret Life of Pets 2? It’s cute and funny, even if it’s essentially three separate plots that barely have anything to do each other until the finale. But hey, at least that’s fewer than the five separate subplots that Despicable Me 3 had going on.
So what are your predictions, Avocados? And what will you be seeing? Men (and women) in black? The Shafts? Avengers for the 14th time? Sound off in the comments!