No one is mourning for Wicked, but it’s not as popular as some thought it would be either, defying expectations.
Our number one movie is Wicked: Part One—the unofficial prequel to Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return—currently standing with $114 million according to studio estimates. However, that number might go down once actuals come in tomorrow. I also have to note that Wicked had two separate nights of preview screenings, in addition to the ones that took place Thursday. So really we are talking about six days worth of money here.
The good news for Wicked is $100 million is never anything to sneeze at. The bad news is it appears to be front-loaded. At a whopping two hours and forty minutes—which is an insane running time considering that’s the entire length of the Broadway musical on stage—this is kind of a tough sell to non-fans. And Universal ran an absolutely exhausting marketing campaign, kicking off with a Super Bowl TV spot and never really slowing down from there. They treated this film about singing witches like it was The Avengers. This included non-stop advertising during the Paris Olympics on NBC, and somewhere around the time they set a montage of Simone Biles to “Defying Gravity,” I was like, “okay, this is getting kind of dumb.”
In other words, while Universal is no doubt happy with these numbers, they were gambling on more. I hate how “Barbenheimer” has created an impossible goal post that studios have been desperate to kick the ball past ever since. Anytime someone says “we are looking at the next Barbie,” it may as well be Lucy taunting Charlie Brown. The real test comes next weekend when Moana 2 opens and aims for the same audience.
Our other big movie this weekend is Gladiator II. With $55 million, it is director Ridley Scott’s best opening since Hannibal, and that was way back in 2001. But, like Wicked, this still could have been bigger. Both movies were fighting for IMAX and PLF screens, with them being forced to share them in many instances. However, it seems Wicked was very much given more showtimes on them. And for a big screen spectacle like Gladiator II, that’s going to hurt it a little.
That said, I don’t think Paramount is worried right now. Gladiator II was made for international crowds, and they are very much entertained. Since opening in some markets last week, it has already sliced up $220 million. And unlike Wicked, Moana 2 isn’t coming for its demographic on Tuesday. We’ll see what happens next week.
But at the end of the day, these films simply should have opened on separate weekends. I maintain that Wicked would have been better off last week, which as I said in last week’s report, would have given it two full weekends before Moana 2 and allowed Gladiator II some space as well. People can shout “Glicked” all they like, but no one is going to watch ancient soldiers hack each other apart only because Ariana Grande is belting out show tunes in the auditorium next door.
No one is talking about it, but there is a third newcomer this weekend in the form of Bonhoeffer. Pastor. Spy. Assassin. That sounds like a faith-based take on a John le Carré novel, but it’s actually a biopic about a pastor who took part in the doomed plot to assassinate Hitler during World War II. That’s right. It’s part of the Valkyrie cinematic universe. Yes, yes, Angel Studios is a punching bag, but this does look like a good film. It brought in $5 million, which is more or less in line with how these movies usually open.
Anyway, the top ten, via Deadline
- Wicked (Uni) 3,888 theaters, Fri $46.8M Sat $36M Sun $31.4M, 3-day $114M/Wk 1
- Gladiator 2 (Par) 3,573 theaters, Fri $22M Sat $18.8M Sun $14.7M 3-day $55.5M/Wk 1
- Red One (AMZ MGM) 4,032 theaters, Fri $3.3M Sat $5.8M Sun $4M 3-day $13.2M(-59%), Total $52.9M/Wk 2
- Bonhoeffer…(Angel) 1,900 theaters, Fri $2.6M Sat $1.3M Sun $1.1M 3-day $5.1M /Wk 1
- Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 2,558 (-863) theaters, Fri $1M Sat $1.78M Sun $1.2M 3-day $4M (-45%), Total $133.8M/Wk 5
- Best Christmas Pageant Ever (LG) 2,279 (-741) theaters, Fri $925K Sat $1.4M Sun $1.1M 3-day $3.5M (-33%), Total $25.5M/Wk 3
- Heretic (A24) 1622 (-1608) theaters, Fri $676K Sat $905K Sun $651k 3-day $2.2M(-55%), Total $24.8M/Wk 3
- The Wild Robot (Uni) 2,110 (-784) Fri $460K Sat $930K Sun $610K 3-day $2M(-53%), Total $140.7M/Wk 9
- Smile 2 (Par) 952 (-1510) theaters Fri $325K Sat $480k Sun $305K 3-day $1.11M (-61%), Total $67.7M/Wk 6
- A Real Pain (SL) 1,185 theaters Fri $295K Sat $476K Sun $338K 3-day $1.109M(-50%), Total $4.9M/Wk 4