Welcome to the Box Office Oracle–where new movies are pitted against each other for box office supremacy and only one can claim victory. Each week, I will be doing a quick box office prediction for all wide new releases. Sorry, obscure indie films I’ve never heard of, but you aren’t going to be discussed here unless you become big.
This is also something I’m going to keep as free of “controversy” if I can. This means that if, I don’t know, Jon Voight is voicing an evil government agent talking bear in a DreamWorks movie, I’m not going to make a bunch of Trump jokes. If a Tom Cruise actioner comes out, I’m not going to make a bunch of Scientology cracks. You get the idea. I want for this to be kept fun and simple.
So, without any further discussion, let’s get into this weekend’s three big new releases, The Addams Family, Gemini Man, and Jexi.
The Addams Family
Even in a weekend that’s seeing the release of a big budget Will Smith actioner (more on that later), The Addams Family is looking like it has the best chance of being the big winner among the newcomers this weekend. In this latest incarnation of the classic and kooky characters, The Addams move away from their home to live among “normal” humans, all while dealing with a devious neighbor who wishes to drive them away. The jokes don’t necessarily seem to be thinking outside the box much here–trailers have been filled with gags about New Jersey and a character whose head is on fire being declared to be “lit”–but darn it, once that iconic theme song starts playing, I want to grab a ticket and enjoy what looks to be a fun Halloween outing (also, Wednesday Addams is one of the most awesome characters ever, so there is that).
Marketing has been great for Addams, and it’s also been everywhere, with the family appearing on everything from Hershey bars to IHOP commercials. Comparisons to the 90’s live-action films are probably invalid–Addams Family Values came out 25 years ago–but we can look to the similar Hotel Transylvania franchise to give us a slight idea of what to expect here. That series has shown enormously healthy staying power, in that every entry has outgrossed the previous one. While reaching the $40 million openings those films have seen might be a bit of a long shot, giving The Addams Family a debut of $32 million seems about right, which would be fantastic for the long struggling United Artists (they share distribution on this with MGM).
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: Snap, snap! There. You want to go now. Also, Chloe Grace Moretz is the voice of Wednesday here. And her pigtails are nooses. That’s like fucking perfect.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: While the character designs for the Addams themselves are great, the animation does appear to be a bit on the budgeted side. And reviews aren’t exactly terrific, with United Artists foolishly holding an embargo on them until yesterday (bad write-ups don’t keep parents from going to an animated movie, but they do inform them that said animated movie is currently playing once they pick up the morning paper).
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $32 million opening; $104 million finish.
Gemini Man
Well…what a difference a few weeks makes.
If you read my “Long Range Oracle” column on Joker from a while back, you might recall that I said there that it would only be on the top of the charts for one weekend because of Gemini Man, which I felt would definitely beat it during its second week. That…doesn’t look like it’s going to happen now, in large part due to reviews. While I don’t think that’s going to have much of an impact on Addams, it is going to hurt a movie as dependent on buzz as Gemini, which features Will Smith fighting a much younger clone of himself because of some apparently evil organization he works for. Trailers have been thrilling, which is why it’s been somewhat surprisingly to see hype for this one deflate recently, especially with a “name” director like Ang Lee attached.
Still, with Smith’s involvement in addition to the high concept, it would be unwise to rule the film out completely. Tracking has Gemini in the mid-teens, but ending up somewhere at least in the mid-20’s seems far more likely to me. We’d also probably be looking at something much bigger were it not for Joker, which is going to ride off of its record-breaking opening last week–not to mention pretty much everyone talking about it–to another weekend victory before Maleficent opens next Friday. As things stand, look for Gemini to open to $26 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The film represents Ang Lee trying to expand what can be done with 3D, with the movie being released in “3D+” in select theaters (which makes this the first wide release in HFR since the last Hobbit flick). And, again, those previews have been pretty good (motorcycle fight!).
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: The plot does seem a bit on the confusing side, with naysayers proclaiming that Lee has made another Hulk here.
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $26 million debut; $56 million finish.
Jexi
Say, what would happen if Alexa were a jerk? That’s pretty much the set-up for Jexi, in which Adam Devine gets a phone with a mind of its own who makes his life into a living hell instead of, I dunno, telling him the time and stuff. So basically it’s like Her if Joaquin Phoenix hadn’t wanted to fuck the phone and instead wanted to kill it.
The TV spots are funny enough, with Devine’s brand of hapless everyman charm working well for this sort of role. Still, awareness is virtually non-existent for this one, so much so that at the time I’m writing this, Rotten Tomatoes doesn’t even have any reviews yet. In an era in which R-rated comedies are struggling at the box office, look for Jexi to make only $4 million.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Go: The movie does look reasonably funny. And in addition to Devine, it also stars Rose Byrne, Wanda Sykes and Michael Pena, and I like all of those people.
Why Your Fortune Cookie Tells You To Stay Away: Jexi seems doomed to become a movie you’ll check out on your phone someday (boy, was that an easy joke!).
Today’s Lucky Lotto Numbers: $4 million opening; $13 million finish.
Other fun stuff…
* Charlize Theron was one of the weaker links of Kubo and the Two Strings for me, largely because she simply didn’t sound comfortable with what was her first voice acting role, but here in Addams Family she sounds much looser and perfectly cast as Morticia.
* Oh never mind, IMDB says that Theron’s first voice acting “role” was actually in Astro Boy, in which she did thirty seconds of narration at the beginning of the movie (which was enough to get her name on the poster, because Summit Entertainment).
* The special effects in Gemini Man truly do look remarkable.
* 2019 movies more violent than Joker: Child’s Play, Us, Brightburn, Midsommar. Hmmmm. Now where were all the click-bait articles for those films?
* Perfect alternate title for Gemini Man: Mr. & Mr. Smith.
* So what will go guys be doing this weekend? Kooky families? Sassy cell phones? Battle of the Smiths? Sound off in the comments!